BALTIMORE RAVENS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
American Football : North America : NFL : AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Sunday, January 22nd, 2012, 3:00PM US
(8:00PM GMT)

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PREVIEW

New England QB Tom Brady absolutely torched the Denver Broncos 45-10 last weekend to give the Patriots their first playoff win after 3 straight losses in the postseason, with their last win coming against the Chargers in the 2007 season.

Now, the New England Patriots are at home again and giving up just 7 points. Seems an easy pick, and that's where this looks like a trap.

The Patriots have torn apart the teams they have beaten this season, scoring points for fun, including last weekend when Brady had record numbers in a devastating 1st half of the game.

Here's the thing. The Patriots have 13 wins, including 9 on the trot, but none of those teams had a winning record! All of them were .500 or less. You can sum it up by saying they have not been tested. The Patriots have beaten just 1 playoff team all season, the Denver Broncos. Not the same as Baltimore.

Baltimore may have seemingly struggled against Houston, but that was a very good Houston defence, much better than the Patriots 31st ranked defence. Baltimore have beaten playoff teams like Cincinnati twice, Pittsburgh twice and San Francisco too. All these teams have better defences than the Patriots.

Pressure is something Baltimore QB Joe Flacco can do, as was demonstrated when he drove his team 92 yards in the final 2 minutes to beat Pittsburgh. All the attention has been on Brady's numbers but then he has had to do it to make up for his awful defence.

Flacco may not have a Superbowl appearance but he has gotten his team into the postseason every one of his 4 years with the Ravens, including the AFC Championship game in his rookie season. Baltimore might never have beaten the Patriots in the regular season but the one time they met in the postseason, Flacco led them to a 19 point win over the Patriots, who had Brady throwing the ball. In Foxboro.

Since then they have met again on this ground but the Pats required OT to sneak past Baltimore 23-20. Baltimore might not run for near 240 yards on the Patriots again but in Rice they have a huge ground threat, and Flacco is more experienced to beat a team he beat in his rookie year.

For Baltimore, pressurising Brady will be key. Last week they did not do so against Houston and they struggled to a win. When they beat the Pats, they intercepted Brady 3 times and sacked him a further 3 times. Brady knows he is going to face his toughest opponents of the season here, as you can read from his interviews. He has even taken time off this week for rest.

Everyone wants the Patriots and the Giants in the Superbowl in a rematch of that famous match when Eli led his team to victory, spoiling Brady's perfect season. Don't be so sure they both get to the big dance, because Baltimore can play.

Having an amazing offence meant no one was expecting the Saints and Packers to be gone before the Superbowl, let alone Championship stages. But they are, and the reason is opposing defences. Baltimore throttled many good teams this season and with the right kind of pressure, they might make this too close for comfort.

BETTING VERDICT

I'd advice caution to anyone hammering New England on the ML for the straight win. It's bad value. They should win, but it won't be easy.

I'd rather take Baltimore to keep in close on the spread and with a full TD, that is what I will recommend here.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

New England Patriots

HANDICAP BETTING :

Take the Baltimore Ravens +7 @ 1.96 (Pinnacle)