San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies
United States: NBA Basketball
Monday 30 January 2012 - Tip Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)

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Preview

The San Antonio Spurs (12-9) will still have painful memories of being bounced out of the Play Offs at the first hurdle last season, despite being the Number 1 seed in the Western Conference, but they can attempt to further exorcise those demons as they face their conquerors, the Memphis Grizzlies (10-9), for the second time this season.

The Spurs hammered Memphis by 14 points at home on Boxing Day, but the memories are still a little raw from the 4-2 defeat in the Play Offs last season. They will also be missing Manu Ginobili for this game, with the Argentinian out for a couple of months, and they also meet a Grizzlies team that is perhaps playing with a little less expectation that had greeted them on their opening loss to the Spurs.

While San Antonio will be missing one of their better players, Memphis are set to be without Zach Randolph for a little while longer- Randolph has not played since New Years' Day although the Grizzlies have gone 9-6 in his absence.

The team have lost their last 3 games, all on the road, but they are unbeaten in 4 in a row at home and will look to take advantage of the struggles that San Antonio have had on the road this season.

San Antonio fell to 2-8 on the road with an OT loss to Dallas last night when they lost by just a solitary point. The Spurs had done really well to fight back in that game after trailing by as many as 16, but it was still a tough loss to take against an Inter-State rival.

Memphis will have to try and slow down the Spurs shooting from beyond the arc in this game, just as they did in the postseason here last season. The Spurs have been shooting at 46% from the 3 point line in the last 4 games, but they were restricted to under 22% here in 3 losses in the Play Offs.

San Antonio have made the 3rd most 3 pointers in the NBA this season and they are 6-2 when they make at least 10 in a game.

Head to Head

San Antonio won the first meeting between the teams this season, both straight up and against the spread, but they have struggled in the series before that.

In fact, San Antonio are just 1-10-1 against the spread in the last 12 games in the series.

Memphis have a strong record at home against San Antonio, winning the last 5 in a row and 6 of the last 7 here... They have also gone 6-1 against the spread in those games.

Memphis are 5-3 against the spread at home this season, San Antonio are 3-7 on the road.

Memphis are 6-4 against the spread as the favourite, San Antonio are 3-2 as the underdog.

Other Interesting Trends

Memphis are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games as the home favourite of between 5 and 10.5 points.

They are 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 games against a team with a 40% or less winning percentage on the road.

San Antonio are 4-7 against the spread in their last 11 games played on the second of back to back nights... They are 3-3 against the spread in this situation this season.

Prediction

I am going to back the Memphis Grizzlies to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, Memphis seem to match up really well with the San Antonio team, with a lot of people favouring them last season in the Play Offs and the fact they are 6-1 against the spread in the last 7 at home, including winning 5 in a row.

Second, San Antonio put in a lot of effort, especially the reserves, in trying to come back against Dallas last night and could be a little fatigued and emotionally flat in this game.

Third, Memphis have been protecting home court effectively this season, and I think the fans will be really looking forward to this game.

Fourth, Memphis are 6-1 against the spread when playing the first of back to back nights scheduled... They are 3-0 in this spot so far this season.

The Pick :

Memphis Grizzlies 101-91 San Antonio Spurs

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back the Memphis Grizzlies - 6 Points @ 1.95