CHAMPIONS LEAGUE BETTING PICK - BARCELONA V CHELSEA

Champions League

2012-04-24 - Barcelona vs Chelsea

A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted

BARCELONA v CHELSEA
Football : Europe : Champions League
Tuesday, April 24th, 2012, 7:45PM GMT

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PREVIEW

For the first time during the reign of Pep Guardiola, Barcelona have lost back to back games. Last week a combination of Chelsea's defence, and bad luck meant Barcelona failed to even score, coming away from the 1st leg trailing 1-0. Then on the weekend, Barca's slim chances of winning the La Liga title were snuffed out when Ronaldo scored Real Madrid's winner in the Nou Camp.

This competition is all Barcelona have left, and Chelsea must know they are going to have the kitchen sink thrown at them.

Once again Barcelona have lost in London to an English side, and once again they must perform at home to get through. In the finals they will hope to meet either Bayern Munich, or Real Madrid, which is what most neutrals would like.

But Chelsea could ruin all that.

The job is half done already. By keeping a clean sheet, Chelsea have put themselves in a situation where they only need a goal at the Nou Camp to make Barcelona require 3. Sure, Barcelona, in theory, could score twice that, but one has to look at what Chelsea has done the last few games.

The Chelsea team looks completely different to the ones that were hating life and football under AVB. Chelsea absolutely destroyed Tottenham in the FA Cup and then just days later were able to keep Barcelona from scoring. Even after that they were able to keep Arsenal from scoring at the Emirates, not an easy thing to do at all.

The thinking is, "Surely now Barcelona will click into gear and do them", but is it that simple?

Arsenal went to the Nou Camp with a lead last season too, although the Gunners did not keep a clean sheet in the home leg, and Arsenal scored and were going through before the refs started their nonsense.

So why not Chelsea? It is not unfathomable for the Blues to fight and get a goal there, not at all. And not crazy at all to think this bunch could then restrict Barcelona to under 3 goals.

I don't think you should bet against Barcelona winning this match over 90 minutes, even if the odds of laying them are big. But Chelsea could well lose this and still go through. They just have to find 1 goal, and at 1.83 that is not a bad bet at all over at Bet365.

I've been looking at 2 bets, both of which are based on the belief Chelsea may well spring a surprise and add a twist to the tale. Take the Blues on the AH with a start is a great idea, while you can get 3.00 on Chelsea to qualify!

BETTING VERDICT

I'm going to go with the riskier bet. All weekend I've thought things would go one way, and then something else has happened. Well, ask anyone who they think will end up going through and they'll say Barcelona. These are the same people who said Barcelona would win the first leg, or, at best, not lose. What happened there?

Expect the unexpected. Take Chelsea to get to the finals @ 3.00 over at BetFred because that is a massive price for a team that has already done half the work in the 1st leg.

I'll take Chelsea on the AH as I think they will avoid a heavy loss.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

Consider Chelsea to qualify @ 3.00 (BetFred)