Icelandic Football
2012-07-29 - Selfoss vs Valur Reykjavik
A Sports Betting Pick by Cornholio
Icelandic top league - Round 13
Sunday 29 July 2012, 19:15 GMT
Valur Reykjavik will travel to Selfoss to meet the troubled relegation candidates. Both teams are struggeling with Selfoss getting stuck in the relegation zone.
Valur keep their trend from previous seasons of being unstable and need to use this oportunity well if they are to have any chance at all for the European place.
Selfoss
As in 2010 this season is turning into a nightmare for Selfoss. They have a lot more foreign players this time so there is more pressure on them to produce better results. With Fram winning in last round Selfoss are now four points behind the safe zone.
Losing last three and six of last seven Selfoss really seem doomed. On top of that, they have only scored once in last three games while conceding eight. Their defeding is poor and they have had problems with the goalkeeping where the foreign goalkeeper hasn‘t lived up to expectations.
In last round Selfoss lost 1-0 at Vestmannaeyjar where they played 11 against 10 since the 27th second (yes second!). They were still terrible, just like in the game before against IA Akranes, and IBV went on winning 1-0 completely dominating the game. Selfoss were unable to pass the ball at all and were harshly criticised after the game with tv specialist stating they looked like some pub players.
The loss against IBV means Selfoss are now in 11th place with eight points, two points ahead of Grindavik but four points less than Fram. Their overall is 2-2-4, 13:25 and they haven‘t won since 4th round, some two months ago. Since then they have managed two draws but lost the rest.
It‘s hard to see how Selfoss are going to get those 20 points or so that are normally needed to stay in the league. At least something dramatic needs to happen for them to achieve that. They might have a decent change against Valur to get back on their feet since the latter are on a bad run and the second worst on the road.
However, Selfoss have been so terrible lately that there would need to be a complete turn around in their playing style if they are to produce some points here.
Valur Reykjavik
After winning first two Valur have been up and down and have only produced three wins in the next ten games. They are in a desperate need of a striker, something that isn‘t new for them. Their 3-1 win against FH two rounds ago came as a surprise and one wonders if FH were saving themselves for the away game against AIK.
In last round they went back on losing track with Fram beating them 0-2. That means Valur have now failed to score in three of last four games and now sit in 9th place with 15 points, only three more than Fram. However, since Selfoss and Grindavik are so bad they are pretty safe and the group above them is very tight so they could easily jump up to mid table with a win.
Overall Valur are 5 0 7, 16:17 and it‘s pretty interesting that they haven‘t made a single draw in 12 games. They seemed quite frustrated against Fram and after conceding a penaly they seemed to lose their head which resulted in one of their key midfielders receiving a red card for a bad tackle. This means he will be banned against Selfoss.
The season is far from over for Valur Reykjavik and they will know that meeting Selfoss is a great oportunity to get fully away from the relegation zone, even though they have a bad record when travelling, winning only once and losing five. Winning only one in last four Valur will surely put everything into this game.
Head to head
Only four meetings with Valur winning all. 3-1 at home this season and 2-3 and 2-1 last season along with a 3-0 win in the League cup 2010. All being over 2.5 but difficult to assess anything with so few clashes.
The Betting Verdict
Valur Reykjavik are terrible on the road winning just one and losing five. However, Selfoss are terrible no matter where they play. Their last two were on the road and they lost them 1-0 and 4-0. Before that they lost at home against Stjarnan 1-3. They seem destained to go down and Valur won‘t get a better chance to get back on winning track.
The price for Valur probably reflects their bad form when travelling. However, with Selfoss being so poor in the last few games it‘s hard not to see value in the away win price which is as high as 2.5. That‘s too good for me to miss out.
However, with Valur trouble in front of goal and the fact they still haven‘t made a draw you might want to look at the more safe draw no bet at around 1.75.
The Pick :
Selfoss 1-2 Valur Reykjavik
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Valur Reykjavik to win @ 2.5 (Bet Victor)
