English Premier
2013-05-11 - Aston Villa vs Chelsea
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Saturday 11 May 2013 - Kick Off 12:45pm
This game is live on TV
Aston Villa
Paul Lambert, like a number of managers of clubs at the bottom of the Premier League, would have been very happy to see Wigan Athletic fall to a 2-3 loss to Swansea on Tuesday night. That result has virtually assured Aston Villa of a place in the Premier League next season and that will give this young squad the chance to play this game with a little bit of freedom, even more so considering the solid performances they have provided in the last few weeks.
A win at Carrow Road last week moved Aston Villa up to 13th in the Premier League table and they have reached the 40 point mark which will surely keep them safe this season as they have a 5 point lead over Wigan in the final relegation place. Villa have a 5-5-8 record at Villa Park this season, scoring 22 goals and conceding 26 in those games.
Aston Villa's solid run of form has seen them pick up 16 points from a possible 24 in the Premier League and they enter this game off back to back wins against Sunderland at home and Norwich City away last weekend. Villa have won 3 of their last 6 games at Villa Park, although they have suffered losses to the likes of Manchester City and Liverpool in that time.
Matthew Lowton is expected to miss his first League game of the season after suffering an injury last week.
Chelsea
Rafa Benitez may be in his final eight days as manager of Chelsea, but he can certainly end his tenure on a high in that time. After a draw with Tottenham Hotspur on Wednesday, Chelsea need three more points to book their place in the Champions League for next season and they also have the Europa League Final to contest against Benfica in Amsterdam.
After earning the point against Spurs during the week, Chelsea remain in 3rd place in the Premier League, but are importantly 3 points clear of 5th placed Spurs and with a vastly superior goal difference. That is the main reason why three more points should be enough to secure a Champions League berth, while finishing 3rd is still important to avoid the qualifying Round of the Champions League next season. Chelsea have a 9-4-5 record away from home in the League, scoring 32 goals and conceding 22 in those games.
Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 7 games in all competitions since being beaten in the FA Cup Semi Final and they have won 5 of those games. Chelsea have also won 3 of their last 4 away games in all competitions to put themselves in the driving seat for a top four finish.
Eden Hazard and Victor Moses are doubtful for this game. Frank Lampard and John Terry could start with both being considered for the bench in the Europa League Final.
Head to Head
Earlier this season, Aston Villa were embarrassed by Chelsea when they were thumped 8-0 at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea also recorded a 2-4 win in their last visit to Villa Park, but Aston Villa had only lost 1 of their previous 13 at home against the Blues.
Prediction
While I do think Chelsea will win this game, I don't think it is wise to underestimate Aston Villa who have certainly been an improved team in recent weeks.
They have begun to find goals at home and I think Villa will score, but I remain convinced Chelsea will find a way to grab the three points that will virtually secure a Champions League berth and so will back the away side in a slightly different way.
The Pick :
Aston Villa 1-2 Chelsea
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Both Teams to Score and Chelsea to Win (Match Result with Both Teams to Score) @ 3.30 (Ladbrokes)
