Icelandic Football
2013-05-27 - Fram Reykjavik vs Stjarnan Gardabae
A Sports Betting Pick by Cornholio
Icelandic top league - Round 5
Monday 27 May 2013, Kickoff 19:15 GMT
Here the Reykjavik giants host the attacking team from Gardabae in an important game for both sides. A win for Stjarnan could bring them into top three while a win for Fram will keep them from the lower part of the table.
Fram Reykjavik
This year Fram isn‘t expected to be in the upper part of the table. Still, they have started better than last season when they lost 3 of their first 4 games. Now Fram sit in 7th place with 5 points after winning in the 1st round, then drawing twice before losing at IA Akranes in last round. They will want to get back on track against Stjarnan in order to keep themselves away from the relegation zone.
What is troubleing for Fram is that they seem to have a difficult time in scoring goals, just as last season and some previous ones. 4 goals scored is the second fewest in the league but with only 4 rounds played it wouldn‘t be fair to judge them too harshly yet. They will have a great chance to fix that against the shaky defense of Stjarnan.
Fram need to get their key striker Steven Lennon on a scoring direction since he is supposed to be „too good“ for the Icelandic football. I think he still haven‘t showed that, at least not for a long straight period.
A victory here could put Fram in a good position since they have a fairly easy program in the following two rounds where they travel to Keflavik before hosting Thor Akureyri. Losing against Stjarnan, thereby losing two in a row, and going on a bad run in those following two games would mean yet another troublesome season for Fram.
Stjarnan Gardabae
Stjarnan are expected to be in the top battle and they are probably on par in the first 4 rounds. They lost against a strong KR side in the 1st round, then did what they were supposed to by winning Thor and Fylkir before drawing in last round at home with Valur, a game Stjarnan could‘ve easily lost.
Conceding only 2 goals in the last two games is positive for Stjarnan who haven‘t exactly been strong in back in recent years. However, they conceded twice against Vikingur Olafsvik and have conceded 5 goals in total, the same amount as in the first four rounds last season.
However, Stjarnan have scored 6 goals which is 3 less than last year and their key strikers Veigar Pall Gunnarsson and Gardar Johannsson still haven‘t scored allthough Veigar has made some assists and had apart in most of Stjarnan‘s goals.
Failing to grab all three points at Fram could make Stjarnan fall far behind the top battle since it looks like becoming a duel between KR and FH. If Stjarnan manage to play as well as they did in the first half against Valur they will certainly give Fram problems in the back.
Head to head
Twelve encounters dating back to 2000 with 10 of those being played from 2009. The results are pretty even with Fram winning 5 and Stjarnan 4.
Last season saw it go 1-1 at Fram while Stjarnan won 4-2 at home. Fram have not won since 2010 and 10 of those 12 games were over 2.5 goals. In fact half of the game were over 3.5 goals and the average is 4.08 goals per game.
The Betting verdict
Fram were bad in last round while Stjarnan had an excellent first half and a bad second half. If Stjarnan perform as they did in that first half Fram will be in trouble.
I‘m giving Stjarnan the edge here and I think the price on offer is fair at 2.4. However, I‘m leaning into over 2.5 goals here looking at the stats between the two.
On top of that, Stjarnan have now played two under 2.5 goals games in a row and they never played three like that in a row last season.
The Pick :
Fram Reykjavik 1-2 Stjarnan Gardabae
