Dutch EreDivision
2011-08-06 - SC Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen
A Sports Betting Pick by Billie
Football : Netherlands : Eredivisie
Saturday 6th August 2011 - Kickoff 19:45
SC Heerenveen
Heerenveen finished on the 12th place last season, the worst finish since the 1993/94 season. There was a certain downtrend as the 11th place in 2010 was significantly worse than the multiple 5th places the seasons before. Manager Ron Jans needs to get results fast, as he has been spared after the previous season, but his assistant has been fired and I doubt he has got too much credit left.
Several players left the club but so far the squad has not changed completely. Besides midfielders Väyrynen and Grindheim and defender Jong-A-Pin no starters has left, yet. Wingers Beerens and Assaidi have stated they are ready for a higher level, and they are targeted by some clubs. AZ even made an offer for Beerens, but it was rejected. But so far they are still at the club and the attack with those two wingers and striker Dost could be a guarantee for goals, as Heerenveen was hoping for last season. Leftback El Akchaoui returned from a loan period and might start, and midfielder Kums was brought in to fill the gap on the midfield.
The preparation has been with ups and downs. Most notably a 4-1 loss against Belgian AA Gent, an 2-1 win over Germinal Beerschot, 2-0 loss against Real Mallorca and a 5-4 win over Olympiakos. Ofcourse these were only friendlies, but the organization at the back is not yet to be fully trusted. Goalie Vandenbussche is back in goal, but looks as unstable as always, and defender Gouweleeuw is standing at the brink of his first season on high level, playing 6 matches last season.
But on the other end, goals can come in any time when striker Dost gets his confidence back. Last year he had some disagreements with manager Jans, but it seems they heve left that behind. But wheter this team is ready to perform is a big questionmark for me, and I don’t expect them back at the higher regions of the table this season.
NEC Nijmegen
NEC were satisfied with the 11th position last season, as it’s about the highest as possible with their budget. As long as they stay in and stay away from relegation danger, they have nothing to complain.
New manager at the club is Alex Pastoor, who surprised with Excelsior last season. He kept the unexperienced team in the eredivisie and played some surprisingly nice football at times, something he will try to repeat at NEC. Along with him came center midfielder Koolwijk, who will play a big role on midfield. Furthermore midfielder van der Velden of AZ, and forwards Platje (FC Volendam) and Nijland (on loan, PSV) were brought in.
On the otherhand some important players left. Topscorer of the Eredivisie last season, Vleminckx, left to Club Brugge. Also midfielders Zimling and Davids left, winger Chatelle returned to Anderlecht and midfielder Sibum who didn’t play regularly anymore also left.
All in all there are several changes in the squad, and the departure of Vleminckx will be felt. They didn’t attract a new striker, but are planning to play with offensive midfielder Schone up front. But as his contract expires next summer, he might be leaving before the end of the month.
Besides the striker position they have done a good job replacing the departing players, and there is a squad that is not really weakened compared to last season. With the addition of manager Pastoor, they might even be the surprise of the season, as predicted by the so called experts.
The preparation friendlies were all close, a 1-0 loss against Mallorca and a 1-1 draw against Valenciennes catch the eye. Not really convincing, but it’s hard to judge these matches without the right context.
The Betting Verdict
The strength of both teams is up front. Defensively they both have some cons, like inexperience and lack of pace.
I’m expecting a match where both sides are playing full throttle to score, and I’m not convinced Heerenveen deserve this big favourite role in this match-up.
Furthermore this match has been a guarantee for goals in recent years, with the exception of last season (where I got stung on the over). Before that, 10 eredivisie-matches in a row were 3 or more goals. With the current situation, I expect the trend of goals to return, and I will make my play on the over market.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Over 2.75 goals @ 1.81 Pinnacle
