NCAA Football
2007-01-03 - Notre Dame at LSU
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Sugar Bowl
8:00 pm EST
A shift in betting has moved this line down a full point, but trust me when I tell you, it's going in the wrong direction.
Notre Dame comes into this game with an ugly eight game Bowl losing streak. Over that stretch, they've managed to beat the number just once. Is there any reason to believe that trend reverses on Wednesday? I don't think so.
Let's take a look at what the Irish did outside of South Bend this season. They kicked off the season with a narrow 14-10 win at Georgia Tech. Next they traveled to East Lansing, and needed a huge second half rally to outgun Michigan State.
That win seemed impressive at the time, but after watching the Spartans the rest of the season, I now have a much different opinion. After a blowout win at Air Force, they finished up their road campaign with a 44-24 loss against USC.
On the flip side we've got an LSU team that did everything that was asked of them this season, suffering just two losses against Florida and Auburn. Even in those defeats, they actually outgained their opponents by combined 159 yards.
Unlike in past year's when it's been all about defense, the Tigers have shown some major offensive pop. They managed to score 28 points or more on nine different occasions this season, even topping the 40-point mark five times. Notre Dame's defense has looked lost against upper echelon competition, and I expect that to hold true here on Wednesday.
While I don't feel that home field means a whole lot in Bowl season, this may be an exception. The Tigers will play this game in front of a partisan crowd in New Orleans, and you can bet that they're eager to put on a show. Les Miles won't allow his team to let up until the final whistle. I would lay the points here. Although for a nice safe bet, perhaps just the straight win, seeing as the dogs have been covering a bit too often when not expected.
