AFL Aussie Rules
2007-07-22 - Richmond vs Port Adelaide
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Richmond (1-13-1) vs Port Adelaide (9-6)
OK - I know that Port Adelaide absolutely thrashed West Coast last week - and I know that Richmond look unable to win almost anything .. but are the visitors REALLY 20 points better ?
Port Adelaide have not won an away game by 20+ points since June 2006 (13 road games ago) when they thrashed Carlton and with a 1-3 record in their last 4 trips it just seems that the public has got carried away.
Let's also factor in that Richmond got embarassed last weekend in their 53 point loss to Hawthorn - and this this is the 250th game for Matthew "Richo" Richardson - and I see a lot of motivation for the Tigers to keep battlnig to keep this one close.
THE VERDICT
Despite their awful record, Richmond have been easy to tag regarding an anticipated margin - and so far this season they've delivered a 3-0 result for us when we've backed them to keep it close with a big handicap.
I think that Richmond might even surprise and win this game outright - but lets take the big +20 point start to get a wide safety margin.
Port Adelaide do NOT score a lot of points on the road - and if Richmond can manage to get 80-85 points then this bet will win.
