Greek League
2007-09-29 - Aris Salonica vs Olympiacos
A Sports Betting Pick by Dimitris
This is one of the two Thssaloniki-Athens major clashes for this round, and the first time Dusan Bajevic will coach a team against Olympiacos since he left.ARIS
Aris are trying to repeat the excellence of last season, that saw them finish in the fourth place of the table. They did fine beating Real Zaragoza for the UEFA cup 10 days ago and they want to retain a high spirit for the second match at La Romareda on Thursday.
Aris have a fine squad, with many Spanish players brought in by former coach, and they also just hired Dusan Bajevic as coach, who happens to be simply the best coach that has ever worked in Greece. They will play with no player missing and a full stadium, that always gives them the extra push.
OLYMPIACOS
Olympiacos after drawing 1-1 at home with Lazio for the CL they bounced back with an impressive 6-2 against OFI, but this was one of the games that everything goes right for one team and wrong for the other. They have found a new star in the face of Argentinian right winger Galetti after the loss of Rivaldo to AEK.Former Portsmouth player Lua Lua seems to be in a very good form also.
A very reputable Greek site reports that coach Lemonis will rest defensive midfielders Torosidis and Stoltidis, something that will greatly reduce Olympiacos' strength if it happens, in my opinion.
HEAD TO HEAD
One has to go almost a decade back to find a home win of Aris over Olympiacos, while Olympaicos have come away with a win in all three last visits at Kleanthis Vikelidis
Olympiacos : Aris 0:0 18.03.2007
Aris : Olympiacos 2:3 18.11.2006
Olympiacos : Aris 2:1 30.01.2005
Aris : Olympiacos 0:1 25.09.2004
Olympiacos : Aris 3:0 16.05.2004
Aris : Olympiacos 0:3 14.12.2003
Olympiacos : Aris 1:0 23.03.2003
Aris : Olympiacos 0:0 01.12.2002
Aris : Olympiacos 1:5 08.05.2002
Olympiacos : Aris 0:1 27.01.2002
Aris : Olympiacos 2:2 27.05.2001
Olympiacos : Aris 4:1 21.01.2001
Aris : Olympiacos 0:1 08.05.2000
Olympiacos : Aris 2:0 09.01.2000
Olympiacos : Aris 1:0 25.04.1999
Aris : Olympiacos 1:0 22.11.1998
VERDICT
I can't really say if this will be a hell of a match to watch, or a boring tactics game. I am sure that it will be only a choice of Bajevic, cause he is an excellent tactician compared to Lemonis. Olympiacos are superior in quality, but this doesn't mean that Aris have a bad squad. In fact, Bajevic or not, i would expect them easily to be in the top 5 again this season.
The price for home win at the moment is about 4.5 after commision at Betfair, that is just too high for me to ignore. I know well that Olympiacos have a way to win in Greek League, but i think that a lay is worth it at the moment. A less risky pick is Aris +0.5 AH, priced 1.9 at bet365. Of course noone should go big on this one, cause it is always a tough job to lay Olympiacos in Greece.
The Pick :
Home win at around 4.5, small stakes
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Aris +0.5AH @ 1.9 looks a decent option
