Greek League
2007-10-28 - Xanthi vs AEK Athens
A Sports Betting Pick by Dimitris
Xanthi welcome AEK in their fortress home ground having changed man-in-charge on the bench and will try to claim the first points from perfect AEK this season.XANTHI
Two defeats in a row, one at home from Atromitos and one away at Levadeiakos, cause the board of Xanthi to sack coach Emilio Ferrera and bring back Nikos Kehagias, the man that secured the clubs Super League status against relegation last season. The numerous players brought in during the summer transfer season caused the team to lose its identity and apparently they need more time to show full potential.
Xanthi have a 2-0-1 record at home this season. However Xanthi have a very strong home ground, having recorded one loss in the previous season (in the last round match when they had no interest in the match), and only one more in the 2 previous seasons! For this match they will miss defender Noukeu and midfielders Fliskas and Barkoglou.
AEK ATHENS
AEK simply have one task in this match : maintain the winning status. They have won 5/5 games and are already 4 points clear of second Olympiacos. One can say that they haven't played a derby yet but on the other hand they have had some difficult tests against UEFA cup teams Panionios and Larissa.
Midweek they traveled to Sweden for a match against Elfsborg for the UEFA cup, a match they drew 1-1. Spaniard coach Ferer rested some key players as he wouldn't want to risk their integrity on the artificial turf of the nordic team's home ground. Brazilian super star Rivaldo is back as well as striker Lymperpoulos, but still the leaders of defense and midfield, Dellas and Zikos, are still unavailable.
HEAD TO HEAD
To find Xanthi's last win over AEK on home soil one must go back 8 whole years, in 1999. 10 out of 18 previous games have finished UNDER but one can see that we have 4 consecutive scoreless draws in the last matches against the two sides.
Athens AEK:Xanthi 0:0 29.04.2007
Xanthi:Athens AEK 0:0 10.12.2006
Athens AEK:Xanthi 0:0 14.05.2006
Xanthi:Athens AEK 0:0 08.01.2006
Athens AEK:Xanthi 2:1 17.04.2005
Xanthi:Athens AEK 1:1 11.12.2004
Xanthi:Athens AEK 1:2 01.05.2004
Athens AEK:Xanthi 3:0 07.12.2003
Athens AEK:Xanthi 3:2 16.02.2003
Xanthi:Athens AEK 0:1 22.09.2002
Xanthi:Athens AEK 1:1 17.02.2002
Athens AEK:Xanthi 2:0 14.10.2001
Xanthi:Athens AEK 0:1 26.05.2001
Athens AEK:Xanthi 2:0 21.01.2001
Athens AEK:Xanthi 4:1 12.04.2000
Xanthi:Athens AEK 2:2 05.12.1999
Athens AEK:Xanthi 2:1 23.05.1999
Xanthi:Athens AEK 2:1 23.01.1999
VERDICT
When i started looking on this match i thought that the price offered on AEK is a big opportunity but Xanthi's home record made me think about it twice, 2 defeats in 3 seasons is just a perfect record. Still AEK at the moment are just a much better team than out of form Xanthi. Most importantly AEK have quality players such as Rivaldo and Lymperopoulos that can lift the burden when the team is not playing very well.
Being fully aware of the risk involded i will propose AEK to maintain their winning streak. This can be found at Betfair at the very tempting price of 2.2 (2.14 after commission) at this moment. Bearing in mind Xanthi's home record one may prefer to go for AEK -0.25 handicap priced around 1.85 (betfair,bet365) , and get half the stake back in the (not so unlikely) event of a draw. Also UNDERS looks a good pick, but 1.55-1.6 available are not enough for me.
Note : You can watch this match live and free at 15:45 CET on ERTSAT (Hotbird 13o East)
The Pick :
Take AEK -0.25 @1.85 at www.bet365.com
