Euro 2008
2007-11-17 - Scotland vs Italy
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
The final showdown for Scotland
No-one gave Scotland any chance of qualification after the draw for Eur2008 was made and they learned that World Cup finalists France and Italy were BOTH in their group.But with one game to go battling Scotland hold the route to qualification in their own hands - simply beat World Champions Italy (a very tough task at any time) and the Scots will earn a deserved place in the Euro2008 finals.
Scotland have got to this position by beating highly fancied France 1-0 both home and away - and although both results could be described as the football equivalent of a mugging - it just shows why football games are played on the park and not in computers.
Scotland at home are ferocious, and this is a trend that is now also flowing through to the Champions League where Rangers and Celtic are also displaying the same ability to unsettle and beat the best European club sides.
Hampden Park will be packed to the rafters, and there will be real hope in the hearts of the fans that their side can unsettle the Italians and record one more famous victory.
THE STATS
Scotland have been perfect at home so far during this campaign and have a 12-6-2 home record in competitive games since 2001.
Scotland Home Form (5-0-0)
13/10/07 W 3-1 v Ukraine
08/09/07 W 3-1 v Lithuania
24/03/07 W 2-1 v Georgia
07/10/06 W 1-0 v France
02/09/06 W 6-0 v Faroe Islands
Italian football sides are very efficient at getting the exact results that they need - and have a 10-7-3 record over the last four qualification campaigns.
Italy Away Form (4-0-1)
12/09/07 W 2-1 v Ukraine
06/06/07 W 2-0 v Lithuania
02/06/07 W 2-1 v Faroe Islands
11/10/06 W 3-1 v Georgia
06/09/06 L 1-3 v France
It is clear that Italy are superior to Scotland overall, especially at home, but the margin was less clear in the last fixture in Scotland back in 2005.
Head to Head Form
28/03/07 Italy 2-0 Scotland
03/09/05 Scotland 1-1 Italy
26/03/05 Italy 2-0 Scotland
ANALYSIS
So how is game going to play out? Think of this match as a mini-reenactment of the defence of Hadrian's Wall.
The Celtic horde (Scotland) are going to come storming out of the changing rooms and we can expect to see a very physical game with a determined rearguard action from the Roman troops. (Italy)
I've seen some comment from an Italian player that Italy will not go to Scotland to play for a point - but quite frankly I don't think he sets the tactics and Italian football doctrine suggests that the visitors will play in a 4-4-1-1 formation and leave nothing to chance at the back.
The situation means that Italy don't need a win - and Scotland cannot settle for a draw - all of which probably means that the situation will all be very tight and the last 10 minutes could be a real nail-bitter.
If it's level at 80-85 minutes then expect to see Scotland throw everything forward - and it's then that Italy could hit back with a typical counter attack to steal a victory.
This game should be MUST WATCH TV on Saturday afternoon for all football fans.
UPDATE :
Spanish referees appointed to this game. I beleive that they'll be fussy and will not allow too much physical contact ... this helps the Italian cause in my opinion.
Referee : Manuel González (ESP)
Assistant referees : Juan Carlos Jiménez (ESP) Antonio Gallardo (ESP)
THE VERDICT
So do I think that Scotland can beat Italy?
Well - Scotland CAN - but it's more likely that Italy will get the point (or more) that they need in order to qualify.
The Pick :
Scotland 1-1 Italy (maybe1-0 or 0-1)
BEST BETTING TIP :
That being said, I am very surprised at the sizable 3/1 (4.00) price being offered on the Scottish side - and that value means that it's the way I'm playing this game.Take SCOTLAND to win - it's not a banker - but the great price does make it a good value play - for small stakes
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
I'd also side with SCOTLAND on +1/2 AH as the more likely handicap winner
