NFL Football
2007-12-13 - Denver Broncos at Houston Texans
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Thursday, December 13, 8:15 p.m. ET
Reliant Stadium, Houston, Texas
Another Thursday Night game in the NFL and another one of those 'loser goes home, winner remains in with a long shot of making the playoffs' game after last weeks Redskins-Bears match up.
Houston Texans
Houston have moved into 6-7 for the season and would have received more attention had they not been competing in a division including the Colts, Jaguars and Titans, all teams with winning records and at least 2 of them should be making the playoffs. While Jacksonville's 9-4 record is virtually out of sight as the number 5 seed in the AFC, Houston are still 2 games behind Cleveland in 6th position and 1 game behind Tennessee.
The Texans have a solid 4-2 record at home this season. After splitting their first 4 games at home, they have managed to win 2 in a row, including their defeat of Tampa Bay last week. They have performed up and down recently as the win last week snapped their 2 game losing run and the Texans have won 3 of their last 5 games. Their chances of making the playoffs may be ended with a defeat here, but with a trip to Indianapolis and the visit of Jacksonville to come, having to win 3 games in a row is going to be difficult regardless. Houston's defense may be key here as the two matches they have lost here have seen them give up at least 30 points, while they have won all 4 games at home without the opponent scoring more than 19 points.
Matt Schaub will miss out for Houston again and his position will be taken by Sage Rosenfels at QB. Ron Dayne may also miss out, meaning their RB will be a third string back, most likely Darius Walker with his first start. With a makeshift offensive line to work with, Houston really are a beat up squad at the moment, and the short field may work against them here.
Denver Broncos
Denver are somehow still in the hunt for a spot in the post season but it is unlikely to be as AFC West Champions. Their 6-7 record leaves them 2 games behind San Diego with 3 to play, including one IN San Diego. The record is also only good enough to leave them 2 games behind the 6th seeded Cleveland Browns, and the Broncos know they have to win this match if they are to stand any chance of catching the Browns.
Denver have a 2-4 record on the road which is about right for how they have performed this season. They have had heavy losses at Indianapolis, Detroit and Oakland but Jay Cutler has found come form recently for the team and led them to 3 wins in their last 5 games overall. Denver are also putting up some points in those games as they have 27, 34, 34, 20 and 41 points while the defense has limited teams to 20 points or less in the 3 victories. However the Broncos have given up 37 points and then 34 points in their last 2 road games, both losses, at Chicago and Oakland respectively.
Denver have 2 of the best corners in the game. Champ Bailey and Dre Bly are very effective against the pass and they will be key to this match. The whole Denver defense has forced 13 turnovers in their last 5 games, and if they can create short fields, they will create pressure on the Houston defense.
The match up
An interesting match up will be Gary Kubiak v Mike Shanahan on the touchlines. Kubiak worked under Shanahan at Denver for 11 seasons and actually employs Shanahan's son, Kyle, as Quarterbacks coach.
There is a lot of respect between the coaches, in direct contrast to the relationship enjoyed by Bill Belichick and Eric Mangini at New England and the Jets.
The two teams met in 2004 as their only meeting between the franchises and Denver won easily that day 31-13.
Houston are 5-6-1 against the spread overall and are 3-1-1 at home. Denver have been terrible at 3-9-0 against the spread overall and this is 1-5-0 on the road.
PREDICTION:
Normally a short week means preparation will favour the home team and Denver have been pretty bad on the road this season. However, Houston do turn the ball over too many times and this may haunt them against this defense that is playing so tough.
If Ron Dayne is out, Houston will put the game in the hands of Rosenfels as there is not too much hope placed in Walker and that might cause problems against the 2 corners the Broncos possess.
This is going to be an interesting game between two teams but one I feel the road team will eventually pull out the fire.
The Pick :
DENVER BRONCOS 31-20 HOUSTON TEXANS
