Greek League
2008-01-13 - Olympiacos vs Panathinaikos
A Sports Betting Pick by Dimitris
The Greek "El Classico" became a dogfight for the top spot, courtesy of AEK losing at Tripoli last week leaving those two in the higher two places of the table.OLYMPIACOS
Olympiacos are having their best season in the last decade,but this is not because they found themselves again at the top spot after the end of the first half of the championship. The reason is the qualification on the next Champions League round, with 2 away wins, something that has doomed the club for the last 13 years. But despite the fact they were good in their European games they are not so good in Greece.
This may sound like an oddity for the top club but from their last 4 games against AEK, Ksanthi, Larisa and Iralkis they won 10 points when they clearly didn't deserve more than 4-5. The reason they got the extra points lies (except the Iraklis game where they were favored by the referee) in the sheer quality of players they can afford to have and especially Darko Kovasevic who has scored in ALL home matches.
In this match coach Lemonis is posed with a riddle as he has to replace key midfielder Ieroklis Stoltidis who will miss the match as well as former Hamburg midfielder Christian Ledesma. Probably with one of the youngsters Mendrinos or Katsikogiannis will fill the one gap and expecienced captain Djordjevic will move from the left wing to the center. Except those abscences Olympiacos have a full squad and they will depend on Djordjevic, Galetti,Lua-Lua and of course Darko Kovasevic as well as the hot home ground to snatch the 3 points.
PANATHINAIKOS
Despite the fact that Panathinaikos lie in the second place, they are a team in deep crisis. The squad plays very poor football and the fans are in conflict with the board, accusing the owner for being pennywise and not making quality transfers.
Last weekend, it was the first match of 2008, a historic match as it was the first for the celebrating one century of life season. It was embarassing for them to beat lowly Apollon Kalamarias 1-0 with a gift-penalty from the referee on 92 minutes.
A big blow for Panathinaikos is the injury of Brazilian Marcelo Mattos (defensive midfielder), clearly the best and most consistend player this season. Also, Argentinian forward will miss the match. In the front Sapliggidis and Papadopoulos (both Greece internationals) will try to apply the couner-attacking style the team is expected to play
in this match.
MATCH HISTORY
I found somewhat extensive results from past matches with Olympiacos as the home team. Home wins have a slight advantage over the draws (7 to 6) while the away win comes more rarely. From past results there is not a clear trend towards overs or unders.
1992/93 Olympiacos - Panathinaikos 1-0
1993/94 Olympiacos - Panathinaikos 0-0
1994/95 Olympiacos - Panathinaikos 1-1
1995/96 Olympiacos - Panathinaikos 1-2
1996/97 Olympiacos - Panathinaikos 1-0
1997/98 Olympiacos - Panathinaikos 3-1
1998/99 Olympiacos - Panathinaikos 0-0
1999/00 Olympiacos - Panathinaikos 2-2
2000/01 Olympiacos - Panathinaikos 1-0
2001/02 Olympiacos - Panathinaikos 2-2
2002/03 Olympiacos - Panathinaikos 3-0
2003/04 Olympiacos - Panathinaikos 1-1
2004/05 Olympiacos - Panathinaikos 1-0
2005/06 Olympiacos - Panathinaikos 3-2
2006/07 Olympiacos - Panathinaikos 0-1
VERDICT
Although Olympiacos are not as impressive as one could expect from the top team they have one advantage over the other main title contenders, AEK and Panathinaikos : more class in the starting 11. Djordjevic, Galetti and Kovasevic mainly are probably better from any other player in the same position in the Greek League.
Despite the class, the difference in morale in the two clubs is vast. Panathinaikos may be winning as of late, but the appearences are not convincing at all while Olympiacos see that their minimal efforts are well enough to win them one more unofficial Winter Champions title (Leaders after the first half, that is) .
In my eyes everything seems to point to a home win. Of course, this being a derby, I know everything can be expected but unless Panathinaikos really pull some magic tricks tomorrow, defeat is inevitable. The bookies seem to agree with me and so they have priced Olympiacos win way below evens. Best price i could find was 1.97 at Pinnacle and maybe you can get a similar price at Betfair if you are lucky. Otheriwse you wil have to cope with the 1.8ish gentally available.
The Pick :
Olympiacos @ 1.97
