Champions League
2008-04-02 - Arsenal vs Liverpool
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
UEFA Champions League Quarter-finals
Arsenal Stadium - London
Wednesday, 2nd April 2008 - KO 20:45 (CET)
ARSENAL (ENGLAND - 3rd)
Arsenal finally got back to winning ways last weekend (just) coming back from 0-2 at halftime to beat lowly Bolton Wanderers 3-2 in the English Premier League.
That final result will at least give Arsenal a small amount of confidence, but the truth is that the wheels have fallen off the Gooner bandwagon in recent weeks and it's going to take a huge effort for Arsenal to get past Liverpool here.
Arsenal finished second in in Group H behind Sevilla FC, ending the group stage with a record of W4 D1 L1. Arsenal then defeated holders AC Milan in the first knockout round with a goalless draw in London, and a 2-0 triumph in the return match in the San Siro.
Emmanuel Adebayor's run of goals has dried up, Robin Van Persie is still some way short of sharpness, and Eduardo is a long term injury - so Arsenal really do lack striking options and the breakthrough might have to come from midfield.
Another worry for the Gunners is a fragile defence that seems unable to keep a clean sheet at the moment (2 goals conceded against BOLTON ?!?) - although for some reason the Arsenal rearguard does do better in Europe.
LIVERPOOL (ENGLAND - 4th)
Liverpool bounced back from a 0-3 mauling at Manchester United to beat Everton 1-0 in the Merseyside derby last weekend, as result that means that Liverpool have won 8 of their last nine matches.
Liverpool's progression through the group stage was a bit dodgy - especially early on - but the Reds won their final three matches to secure second spot in Group A behind FC Porto and a record of W3 D1 L2.
In the second round, Liverpool were impressive 3-0 aggregate winners against Italian champions Internazionale Milano winning 2-0 at Anfield before a Fernando Torres goal decided the return in Milan.
With Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres, Liverpool possess two quality players who can manufacture a goal at anytime especially given the rather fragile nature of Arsenal's defence.
EXPERIENCE AT THIS STAGE
This is Arsenal's fifth quarter-final appearance in Europe's elite club competition and their record to date is one win (over Juventus) and three defeats.
Liverpool, by comparison, are appearing at this stage for the 12th time (including the old European Cup) and have a record of eight wins and three defeats.
HEAD TO HEAD
Arsenal hold the edge in domestic league clashes in London with a 5-2-0 record on the last seven occasions including wins in each of the last four matches.
EPL 12/11/06 Arsenal 3-0 Liverpool
EPL 12/03/06 Arsenal 2-1 Liverpool
EPL 08/05/05 Arsenal 3-1 Liverpool
EPL 09/04/04 Arsenal 4-2 Liverpool
EPL 29/12/02 Arsenal 1-1 Liverpool
EPL 13/01/02 Arsenal 1-1 Liverpool
EPL 21/08/00 Arsenal 2-0 Liverpool
THE VERDICT
This is a tricky tie to work out.
Liverpool have the weapons to damage Arsenal's leaky defence - if they go forward - but Rafa Benitez's away tactics are often over-defensive.
If Liverpool make the error of inviting Arsenal forward to attack then Liverpool may find out (as AC Milan did) that an aggressive Arsenal side is a hard team to beat.
I'll go for this match to be similar to the Arsenal - AC Milan fixture - except this time Arsenal will put the bloody ball in the net instead of hitting the crossbar.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Arsenal 1-0 Liverpool (risk of 1-1)
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll take ARSENAL at a touch of value.Liverpool fans should get on TORRES TO SCORE ANYTIME @ 3.10 (Paddy Power) - if Liverpool are going to get a result we will likely see Torres on the scoresheet.
