AFL Aussie Rules
2008-04-27 - Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne Demons
A Sports Betting Pick by Gratis
Gabba, Brisbane.
Sunday 27th of April, 1.10pm.
Brisbane is the shortest price favourite this weekend playing at home to winless Melbourne.
Both teams lost last weekend, although Brisbane’s got within 12 points of the undefeated Hawthorn while Melbourne was poor losing to Carlton by 31 points.
Brisbane are tenth on the table with two wins from five games while Melbourne are on the bottom and are the only team yet to pick up points this year.
Brisbane (2-3) 10th
Brisbane has lost Begley due to a quad strain while McGrath has been dropped. Five players have been named to replace them, so at least two will get a game out of Collier, Dalziell, Harding, Henderson and Polkinghorne.
Jonathan Brown is coming off a rare bad game last weekend, being held goalless for the first time since 2006. Daniel Bradshaw picked up the slack however, bagging 7 goals last week.
Former Demon Travis Johnstone will also be keen to impress in his first game against his old club and it would be typical for him to play a blinder.
Melbourne (0-5) 16th
First year Coach Dean Bailey is under immense pressure and is a 3.25 favourite to be first coach sacked this season.
His cause hasn’t been helped with club captain David Neitz succumbing to a neck injury last weekend and he will be out for 8 weeks. Whelan is also out due to suspension.
Melbourne has selected five possible replacements, with Bate, Buckley, Garland, Miller and Warnock all chances for a starting berth.
Head-to-Head
Brisbane won comfortably the last time these two met.
2007: Brisbane 126 def Melbourne 82
The Verdict
Brisbane has shortened from 1.10 to 1.06 during the week so punters are still keen to take the short odds and many will consider this a banker for the multi-bets (acca’s).
Melbourne’s confidence must be at an all time low and if they start poorly here this could get very ugly.
I will be taking Brisbane to win by Over 39.5 points (available @ 1.70).
The Pick :
Brisbane to win by 55 points.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
