Greek League
2008-09-28 - PAOK Salonica vs Aris Salonica
A Sports Betting Pick by Dimitris
This red hot Salonica derby could not come in a better timing for PAOK and a worse for Aris. PAOK will look only to keep their good form and Aris to repeat their feat of 1998 and win at Toumpa.PAOK
Portugese coach Fernando Santos seems to have managed to work miracles with the material available even if he lost 2 key players. To be honest he got some quality players like Muslimovic and Vieirinha but the "work miracles" part has to do with the 2nd spot PAOK shares with AEK after 3 games and the fact that they have started the league with 2 away wins, something they achieved back in 1984 when they last won the league!
The morale in the squad is extremely high and it will be boosted by the crowd that make Toumpa the hottest home crowd in Greece. The problems they will face for this game is the abscence of Portugese midfielder Sergio Conceicao.
ARIS
Aris find themselves on the exact oposite condition to PAOK. They are very low in morale as they are 11th in the table only with 3 points after 3 games but more importantly very poor performances. Reports say that Aris will try a 4-3-3 all out attack system in order to snatch the victory and turn things around. They will have to do this without ex-Valencia winger Mario Regueiro and midfielder Diogo Siston.
PREVIOUS GAMES
The history of this rivalry is huge but PAOK have a very good record in the recent seasons at home against Aris with 4 wins and only one draw in the last 5 games.
PAOK Aris 3:0, Season 2007/2008
PAOK Aris 1:0, Season 2006/2007
PAOK Aris 2:2, Season 2004/2005
PAOK Aris 3:0, Season 2003/2004
PAOK Aris 2:0, Season 2002/2003
VERDICT
I favour PAOK on this one, given their momentum at the moment, but I also think they are a better team this season. Home win is a little higher than 1.7, which is a fair price to my eyes and I would go for that if I didn't see that outrageous price for over 2.5 goals.
Aris are clearly in a very difficult spot and they have to try to win this game. I do see them scoring but i also don't see them keeping a clean sheet as well. So 2.54 offered for over 2.5 goals at PinnacleSports is more than enough for me. Nonetheless, 1.7+ for home win is nice for an acca.
The Pick :
Over 2.5 goals
