Spanish La Liga
2009-02-28 - RCD Espanyol vs Real Madrid
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
Football: Spain, Primera Division
Saturday, 28th February 2009 - Kickoff 21:00
Espanyol (19th - Home Rec : 2-4-5 12:16)
Espanyol should be full of confidence after defeating Barcelona last weekend with a 2-1 score line.
However, Barcelona was playing with a man short since half time and Pep Guardiola was more interested in the midweek game rather than that game. Credit has to be given to Espanyol but they just faced Barcelona at the perfect time.
Mauricio Pochettino will be without Steve Finnan, while De la Pena and Huartado are both doubtful for the clash against Real Madrid.
De la Pena is a key player to this Espanyol side and if he does not recover in time, Real Madrid will be very likely to win the game.
Real Madrid (2nd - Away Rec : 6-1-4 18:11)
Real Madrid suffered the first defeat of 2009 in midweek against Liverpool.
Real Madrid dominated the game but failed to capitalize on the opportunity they had. Juande Ramos will want to overcome his midweek disappointment by winning against Espanyol to keep the pressure on league leaders Barcelona.
With nine back to back wins in the La Liga, Real Madrid moved to second spot closing the gap on Barcelona to seven points. With Barcelona playing on Sunday, a win here would see Real Madrid within touching distance.
With severe criticism on Dutch Winger, Arjen Robben performance and his style of play, don’t be surprised to see him being dropped by Juande Ramos.
Wesley Sneidjer and Van Der Vaart who was on the bench on midweek should be recalled into today’s line up to play alongside Diara and Gago in midfield.
Huntelaar who missed the midweek game as he was ineligible should be recalled to partner Raul up front as they both prove to be deadly in recently weeks.
In defense, Sergio Ramos, Pepe, Carnivarro and Marcelo should line up in front of Casillas. Gabriel Heinze should be dropped as his mistake lead to the Liverpool goal.
Betting Statistic :
Under the asian handicap line this season, Espanyol’s home form have been awful, winning only two out of the possible eleven and drawing another two. The handicap wins came against Villadodid at the opening day of the season and Osasuna in early November.
On the other hand, Real Madrid on the road have won six out of the possible eleven. However they have won their last three away games based on the AH line.
The betting Verdict
With Real Madrid only giving up -0.25, Real Madrid seems to be the best bet for me. I cannot see Real Madrid losing this tie.
Espanyol is at the bottom of La Liga and they have find it hard to score this season. When you fail to score against Real Madrid, it is likely that they will break your defense and hit the back of the net sooner or later.
The Statistics :
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BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Real Madrid to win at around 2.15, a good value for me.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Real Madrid to give a -0.25 headstart. (Main Bet)
