CHAMPIONS LEAGUE BETTING PICK - ARSENAL V MANCHESTER UNITED

Champions League

2009-05-05 - Arsenal vs Manchester United

A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner

Arsenal v Manchester United
Football: Europe, UEFA Champions League
Tuesday 5th May 2009 - Kickoff 19:45

---

Arsenal were outplayed by Manchester United at Old Trafford last week but a superb performance by goalkeeper Manual Almunia means that Arsenal are still in the tie moving into the second leg.

Arsenal (4th - England)
Home Form : Europe 4-1-0 : England 10-5-2

Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger has been in upbeat mood this week in the press, saying that he's "sure" that Arsenal will provide a great performance and move through to the final.

Of course, when you are paid a couple of million each season quid to manage a football team, then you have to display confidence in your charges, especially if you're responsible for the overall achievements.

Robin Van Persie is back for Arsenal, and the presence of the London club's leading scorer will enable Arsenal to play a 4-4-2 formation, adding more teeth to the attack and also allowing Cesc Fabregas to play in a more comfortable midfield role.

Also providing some hope for Arsenal is the whole sense of occasion. The Arsenal side is young, and somewhat inexperienced, but so far this season that has usually meant that the team does turn up to play in the big games - especially at home at the Emirates.

Arsène Wenger's men have fine home form, having not lost in 24 matches (and five seasons) in the UEFA Champions League proper playing at Highbury and then the Emirates Stadium in North London.

No-one outside of the Emirates expects Arsenal to progress - and that fact can be somewhat liberating for a young side who can simply go out and play the brand of football that their professorial manager has encouraged them to play.

Manchester United (1st - England)
Away Form : Europe 2-3-0 : England 10-4-3

However, despite all that optimism, the facts are that Arsenal are facing mighty Manchester United who since about 1992 have been the by-word for consistancy of performance in England and now in Europe.

Manchester United have not lost a European match for two seasons now, and have only conceded one goal in five away games this season, when the Red Devils drew 1-1 with Celtic in Scotland.

Manchester United are confident, as they should be, with the experience, players and form to do the job - but this is a Champions League Semi-final and Arsenal are here on merit and should not be underestimated.

There has been some concern over both Rio Ferdinand and Patrice Evra in the build-up to the return fixture but it appears that both players will be ready to play - albeit not at 100% fitness.

Head to Head - Arsenal 5-4-2

These two clubs had not clashed in Europe prior to this tie - so to look for head-to-head form we will have to look at domestic league action.

Arsenal and United have typically played out tight matches in London, with four of the last seven games finishing all square.

Arsenal have recorded a couple of victories in the last three seasons, and drawn the other, while United's last away win over Arsenal was four years ago with a 4-2 success at Highbury.

Overall in the last 11 London league fixtures between the two sides, Arsenal have five win, United two wins, and four games have been drawn.

The Betting Verdict

I have the visitors as significant favourites to progress (70%) as they can do that with a win, a draw, or even a single goal loss - as long as United score a goal.

But significantly, I feel that combination of qualifying results, actually hands a wee bit of the initiative to the home side, and makes it more likely that Arsenal will be ahead on the night.

If that sounds wrong then think of it this way ...

If Arsenal were leading 2-1 in a normal league game with 5 minutes left then United would be going "hell for leather" to pull it back - but in this circumstance we would see United simply sitting back and making sure it stays that way.

So it is with scorelines like 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, potentially allowing Arsenal to get a late winner on the night, but United to still be ahead on away goals or at least into extra-time.

We saw this to some extent in the Chelsea v Liverpool Q/F match where Chelsea came in on a 3-1 advantage and handed the initiative to Liverpool for 60 minutes and were 0-2 down before finally playing a normal game - and creating a 4-4 epic result.

An older and more famous example may be the 1989 League game at Anfield, where Arsenal won 2-0 to claim an improbable League title on the final day, only winning by a two goal margin because Liverpool did not want/need to attack when losing 0-1 late in the match. The Liverpool hesitancy created an opportunity and a final result that few predicted.

These factors lead me to think that the bookmaker odds that suggest that each team is equally likely to win this match are incorrect - and so a bet on Arsenal winning the second leg is my call.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

Take ARSENAL to win the second leg at 90 minutes.


Of course, as a Gooner I hope that Arsenal somehow do pull out a multiple goal margin win - but it's not something that I would recommend a bet on.

Best price for Arsenal -1 goal (must win by 2+ goal margin) is 6.00 (5/1) at Bet365

---