International
2009-06-15 - United States vs Italy
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Football: International, FIFA Confederations Cup
Monday 15th June 2009 - Kickoff 19:30
United States (FIFA Rank 14)
Despite qualifying for World Cup finals repeatedly, The United States gets little respect from European bookmakers and punters and it's always worth checking them closely to see whether there is any value around.
I'm not sure why the US side is so under-rated, sure the rating of 14 might be over-hyped by FIFA's confederation balancing (and somewhat screwy) ranking system, however the US are definately a top 25 side that has won five of their last eight clashes with European opposition.
Maybe it's the "soccer mom" syndrome, or the fact that US are blamed for ESPN inflicting Tommy Smythe as a "soccer pundit" on the world - but whatever it is - just remember that the US are still probably the best team outside the UEFA and COMNEBOL confederations playing here at this tournament.
United States Previous Form
06 Jun 2009 - W 2-1 H v Honduras (World Cup)
03 Jun 2009 - L 1-3 A v Costa Rica (World Cup)
01 Apr 2009 - W 3-0 H v Trinadad and Tobago (World Cup)
28 Mar 2009 - D 2-2 A v El Salvador (World Cup)
11 Feb 2009 - W 2-0 H v Mexico (World Cup)
24 Jan 2009 - W 3-2 H v Sweden (Friendly)
Italy (FIFA Rank 4)
Italy are the "world champions" by virtue of their 2006 success in the World Cup in Germany, but after a poor showing in Euro 2008 the Italian side was obviously no longer the "world's best".
That tournament resulted in the replacement of coach Roberto Donaldino with Marcello Lippi, the man who steered the Azzurri to the win in Germany.
With their incredibly tight defensive style, opponents the Italians who hold the lowest average of goals conceded in FIFA World Cup preliminary matches, at an astounding 0.58 goals a game.
Italy Previous Form
10 Jun 2009 - W 4-3 N v New Zealand (Friendly)
06 Jun 2009 - W 3-1 H v Northern Ireland (Friendly)
01 Apr 2009 - D 1-1 H v Rep. Ireland (World Cup)
28 Mar 2009 - W 2-0 A v Montenegro (World Cup)
10 Feb 2009 - L 0-2 N v Brazil (Friendly)
Possible Lineups
Howard,
Spector, Onyewu, Bocanegra, Bornstein
Dempsey, Bradley, Clark, Donovan
Altidore, Casey
Italy :
Buffon
Zambrotta, Gamberini, Chiellini, Grosso
Camoranesi, Gattuso, Pirlo, De Rossi
Toni
Iaquinta
THe Betting Verdict
An Italian win is the most likely result - they have the pedigree - and the defensive systems to grind out a win - just ignore that midweek result against New Zealand with a mixed squad.
But the Italy win prices of 1.60 (3/5) are not appealing and instead I'd look to cover exact scores of 1-0, 2-0 and / or 2-1 to manufacture a price of around 2.35 overall.
If you're looking for a shock then the 1-1 draw stands out to me as a punt worth playing.
The Pick :
United States 0-1 Italy (maybe 1-1)
BEST BETTING TIP :
Italian backers should consider 3 correct score bets :Italy 1-0 at 7.50 @ Canbet
Italy 2-0 at 6.50 @ Canbet
Italy 2-1 at 9.00 @ Ladbrokes
United States backers should either look at the 1-1 correct score draw (11.00 @ Canbet) or simply take the DRAW which is paying around 3.60 - that's +260 in US line speak.
