Brazilian Serie A
2009-07-30 - Sao Paulo vs Gremio
A Sports Betting Pick by Merlin
Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo (MORUMBI), in Sao Paulo
Thursday 30th July 2009 at 9.00pm (local) / 1am (GMT)
SAO PAULO
Sao Paulo are notoriously slow starters, not only during their games but in the long haul too, such as this league.
Currently languishing in 11th place, 10 points adrift of the leaders. However I want to issue you with a warning; "DON'T WRITE OFF SAO PAULO". Some of the more savvy teams will be looking over their shoulder right now, specifically looking for the Morumbi boys, coz they are about to go into overdrive and play catch-up.
This time last year they were 11 points behind the leaders , who were rather ironically, tonights opponents, Gremio, the rest as they say is history. Oh yeah friends, where Sao Paulo are concerned it really isn't over until the Fat Lady Sings!
NB: Sao Paulo have a manager change from last year, Muricy Ramalho was fired after losing to Corinthians in the semi-final of the State Championships. He was replaced by Ricardo Gomes.
SAO PAULO League Stats :
Games played: 14
League Position: 11th
Wins: 4
Losses: 4
Draws: 6
Away Wins: 1
Home Wins: 3
Red Cards: 4
Yellow Cards: 41
Goals Scored: 17 (from 157 shots/headers on target)
Goals Conceded: 17
Passing Errors: 35.21%
GREMIO
Funnily enough Gremio also fired their manager, Celso Roth for a poor State Championship performance. He was replaced by Carioca, (a person from Rio) Paulo Autuori.
Gremio are having a so-so season, notwithstanding they are currently
playing second-fiddle to big state rivals Internacional who are right up there challenging for the lead.
I feel the best Gremistas can hope for this season is a mid-table finish. Of course the Tricolor would dissagree with me and accuse me of writing them off too early - But I stand by a mid-table finish.
Although they are currently 8th, 3 places above Sao Paulo they don't win many away games which will be their undoing.
GREMIO League Stats
Games played: 14
League Position: 8th
Wins: 6
Losses: 5
Draws: 3
Away Wins: 0
Home Wins: 6
Red Cards: 6
Yellow Cards: 52
Goals Scored: 23 (from 167 shots/headers on target)
Goals Conceded: 16
Passing Errors: 29.57%
THE BETTING VERDICT
I have already predicted a Sao Paulo ascendancy, it would follow then that this I wager will be a home win - Or maybe not!
Frankly, when I was researching the game, for a period decided upon the draw, which is very possible. I later however changed my mind.
The stats and profile of both teams are pretty much even. The last 6 head to heads have resulted in 3 Sao Paulo wins, 2 Gremio victories
and a stalemate.
But - But - But! - In the last 14 games Gremio have only drawn away from home one time. MOREOVER, they haven't won.
On the other hand, Sao Paulo are the draw specialists having drawn
very nearly half of their games this season - herein lies the betting
dilemma.
I really do feel Sao Paulo are gonna start racing up the table and if I'm right they ought to win this game, but prudence and in the interests of securing a profit some kind of exotic bet to cover the most likely draw scenario is a must do.
PLEASE NOTE THE FOLLOWING
I will be covering the Brazilian games until the end of the season and hopefully at the end of it all we would have secured a profit. .
All my single bets are same strength, for instance if I recommend a single win, it's always the same stake. The exotics and correct scores are different and are only used as cover bets - usually with a small built in profit take.
For instance, on Sao Paulo the stake maybe a 10 Pound single at a best priced 1.83 with 1-1 draw cover bet staked at 1.75 on odds of 7.50 (returns = 13.13).
I hope this makes sense to you!
BEST BETTING TIP :
The moment of truth, this is where I stick my neck on the block.It’s Sao Paulo to win straight up at 1.83 ...
With a correct score 1-1 cover bet @ 7.50 (at Centrebet
(or 7.00 at other main bookmakers)
