Real Madrid

A lot of the locals are beginning to talk about the curse of Lyon after the French side beat the mighty Real Madrid 1-0 three weeks ago, their 5th meeting with Real yet to win once. The curse is going to have to be overcome in some style if Madrid wish to make the Final in their home stadium in May.

Real were absolutely sensational when beating Sevilla 3-2 at home on Saturday, but that result will not suffice here. However, it was good enough to put them on top of La Liga on goal difference and it was their 13th win from 13 games at the Santiago Bernebeau this season. In those games, Real have scored 44 goals and conceded just 10, although their only loss at home came against AC Milan in this competition.

They have won all 3 games since losing at Lyon, scoring 14 goals and conceding 5 in those games. Real have won 11 games in a row at home in all competitions and they have won 6 of their last 7 at home by 2 goals or more. More surprisingly for those who watch them regularly, they have kept 4 clean sheets at home in their last 6 games.

Pepe, Royston Drenthe and ex-Lyon player Karim Benzema are not available for the game. Xabi Alonso and Marcelo are important losses through suspension but Guti did come through his appearance against Sevilla after returning to the side from injuries.

Lyon

Lyon will feel confident that they can progress with their 1-0 lead from the first leg, but will also have to blank out memories of their 5-2 mauling at the hands of Barcelona at exactly the same stage of the competition last season. In that game they took a 1-1 scoreline back to the Nou Camp when they should have perhaps won the first leg, this time they have something to look after.

They no longer hold domination over the rest of the French League, and after losing the title to Bordeaux last season, they currently sit in 4th, 2 points behind Bordeaux, who also have 2 games in hand, at the top of the League. Lyon are 6-5-2 away from home where they have scored 24 goals and conceded 14. They were 2-0-1 away from home in the group stages of this competition, including a late win at Liverpool.

Lyon are unbeaten in their last 7 games in all competitions, keeping clean sheets in their last 6. They are unbeaten in their last 3 away from home, keeping clean sheets in all 3 games, but have drawn 2 of those games.

François Clerc, Michel Bastos and Anderson are all out of the squad. Cesar Delgado made his return to the side last weekend and should be on the bench.

Head to Head

As I have alluded to above, Real Madrid have met Lyon 5 times in recent seasons and failed to win any of the games. While Lyon have won 3 out of 3 at home, the 2 games at the Santiago Bernebeau have both been score draws.

Real Madrid have overturned first leg deficits 20 times from 31 tries at home in their history.

Both sides have been knocked out at this stage of the competition in each of the last 3 seasons, and it is now 5 years since Real Madrid played in a Champions League Quarter Final.

Prediction

Real Madrid were fantastic going forward last time out, but still have a few defensive deficiencies that can be exploited. There has to a be some anxiety in playing Lyon again and the failure to score an early goal may make the crowd a bit restless, which can then fall to the players. There also has to be a marked improvement in their play from the first leg.

Lyon have been a solid European side over the last few seasons, but have failed to move beyond this stage. They will have some bad memories of their last venture into Spain last season against Barcelona, although I do believe they have the pace to cause plenty of problems themselves. It will be interesting to see if they invite pressure onto the defence as this could lead to a similar beating as they took by Barcelona.

I can see goals in this match, while also feeling Real Madrid will be too strong. The loss of Alonso is important, but I feel they can overcome that here. I will play Real Madrid to win by 2 goals necessary to progress and will also have a nibble at over 3.5 goals as I feel Lyon will get 1 at least.

The Pick :

Real Madrid 4-1 Lyon

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Over 3.5 goals

HANDICAP BETTING :

Real Madrid -1.5 Asian Handicap