Dutch EreDivision
2010-08-14 - Ajax vs Vitesse
A Sports Betting Pick by Billie
Football: Netherlands: Eredivisie 2010/2011
Saturday 14th August 2010 - Kickoff 18:45
Ajax
Ajax couldn't win it's first match, as a 2-0 lead was wasted in the last quarter against FC Groningen. Groningen went all out for it when trailing and Ajax couldn't handle the pressure, and 2-2 was the final score.
Ajax is active on the transfer market, signing defender Ooijer who was without a club, but I don't think he will play a role in this match. Furthermore they're negotiating with Mido of West Ham.
Of course the match against Vitesse is an important one, a win is needed to prevent a possible gap with the leaders. But in fact all eyes are on tuesday night, when Ajax plays Dinamo Kiev in the final qualifying round of the Champions League.
Reaching the Champions League is a real must, they really need the big money to cover losses. Also the players are eager to finally play on the highest level of club competitions.
Captain Suarez is still suspended and midfielder Enoh is still unavailable. Defender Vertonghen is available after suspension and midfielder Lindgren might be fit in time after injury.
With the international break many players played international matches. From the probable starters De Jong, Emanuelson and Anita played for Netherlands in Ukraine. Vertonghen played for Belgium, Alderweireld for Belgium u21, and Eriksen played for Denmark.
Not an ideal preparation.
Vitesse
Vitesse took a 3-1 win against ADO Den Haag, but quality wise it wasn't good. First half ADO was the better team and got the lead, and after Vitesse's equaliser Vitesse still needed 2 penalties to get the lead and the eventual 3-1 win.
So a win with bad play.
But here is a totally different situation, as nothing is expected of them against Ajax. The gameplan will be simple, lean back, defend and hope on a quick break to maybe score a goal.
Not many international players in the Vitesse squad, so preparation is almost with a full squad for this match.
The Betting Verdict
On first hand this looks a clear big margin Ajax victory. But after taking a closer look the situation is a bit more complicated.
Important players Suarez and Enoh are still unavailable, many players have played international matches all over Europe, and maybe most important the Champions League fixture in Kiev is coming up. Eyes are focussing on this match, as it's one of the most important matches of the season already.
Vitesse will completely lean back, trying to stay clear of conceding as long as possible. This is a situation they might succeed, or at least keep the margin low. If Ajax has a lead, it's possible they will close it out without extra energy wasted, saving it for tuesday.
It's rare I am going against Ajax in a home match but here I just can't ignore the circumstances.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
I'm going for Vitesse +2.5 AH at 1.72 at Bet365.
