NCAA Football
2010-09-04 - LSU Tigers at North Carolina Tar H
A Sports Betting Pick by Goober
Football : United States : NCAA Football
Saturday 4th September 2010 - Kickoff 8pm EDT
Another great matchup on the first weekend pits the #18 North Carolina Tar Heels against the #21 Louisiana State Tigers. The game kicks off at 8PM EDT in Atlanta at the Georgia Dome.
North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina was a disappointing 8-5 last season and comes into this game with a bit of turmoil as the football program has come under NCAA investigation. A number of players have been suspended for this first game.
Several players will be missing from the defense and one of their best offensive weapons, WR Greg Little, will be suspended with a couple of their running backs.
Senior quarterback TJ Yates is back as the starter this year, but he was mediocre last year throwing 14 touchdown passes but 15 interceptions. He will likely struggle without his best playmakers against a good LSU defense.
LSU Tigers
LSU’s offense will be led by QB Jordan Jefferson, who started last year and led the team to a 9-4 record. He threw for 17 TDs last year and only seven interceptions, but the offense was poor overall and a big part of their struggle.
This game is being played on a neutral field, but it is a field where LSU has good memories. LSU is 7-1 all time there. The Tigers are also 5-1 all time against the Tar Heels, but they haven't met since 1986, so that has no real relevance to these teams.
Spread Betting Stats
LSU was 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games of last season. However a closer look at that record shows that in 4 of the 6 they didn’t cover the spread they were within 4 points of the spread. So while they were a money loser on ATS betting last year, they generally played pretty close to the line.
UNC was 6-4 ATS in their last 10 of 2009 with some very good results. With a full team, they could do very well this year. But that won't be the case until they get the investigation complete, if they ever get their full team back.
The Betting Verdict :
The line for this game has moved heavily with the suspensions of the North Carolina players being announced. What started as a pretty even game is now heavily in LSU’s favor.
With North Carolina in turmoil and LSU returning to one of their favorite stadiums, I have to side with LSU not only to win but to also cover the 8.5 point spread.
The Pick :
LSU 27, North Carolina 13
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take LSU to win (main bet)or take LSU to win by more than 8.5 points.
