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Tennis News :: Wimbledon 2018 - Mens Singles preview

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Posted on 2018-07-01 by Auls

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A preview of the Mens Singles Tournament at Wimbledon - by Auls.

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The defending Champion and World Number 2 Roger Federer has missed the clay court season for the last couple of years and it worked well for him twelve months ago when picking up yet another Wimbledon title. He takes his place at the top of the draw and opens proceedings on Centre Court on Monday and Federer comes in having won the title in Stuttgart before a surprising loss to Borna Coric in the Halle Final.

The performances in Halle may be a slight concern for his fans, but Federer is going to be a tough out for anyone who wants to beat him in a best of five set match on his favourite surface. Grass is really a specialty surface and there aren't too many who are more special than Federer which makes him the correct favourite to win the title yet again.

That favouritism is only strengthened by the kind looking draw for Federer and I really don't foresee too many problems for him until the business end of the draw. Ivo Karlovic and Adrian Mannarino are comfortable grass court players that potentially stand in Federer's way, but it would be an upset of epic proportions for either to knock him off his run to another strong showing in SW19.

Borna Coric, the Federer conqueror in Halle, is the potential Fourth Round opponent for the Number 1 Seed which is very interesting. Prior to Halle I don't think Coric showed a lot of feel for grass court tennis and he will have to beat competent grass courter Mannarino to get into the potential Fourth Round clash with Federer and I am not sure he will be able to repeat his heroics from Halle again.

There are a couple of other players in the bottom half of the First Quarter who may well feel they can have very strong showings here. Sam Querrey and Richard Gasquet have all enjoyed successes at Wimbledon in the past with both reaching at least the Semi Final before, while Kevin Anderson's big serving game is well suited to this surface too.

It is Gasquet who I feel could have the best run if he gets through a tremendously difficult First Round match against compatriot Gael Monfils, but I would be very surprised if Federer is not playing in another Semi Final in SW19 later this month and his short odds to win the First Quarter reflects that.

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The Second Quarter of the men's draw is very interesting with two recent Finalists and a Semi Finalist from Wimbledon's past all in this section. The favourite to reach another Semi Final has to be Marin Cilic, who is also the highest Seeded player in the section, and his recent form suggests that is the right person to get behind.

Cilic won the Queens tournament in the build up to this Grand Slam and he has become a huge factor on the grass courts in recent years. The confidence from deep runs at the US Open, Australian Open and French Open shows how strong a player Cilic has become on all surfaces, but he is a tremendous test for anyone on this particular surface.

His form has looked very good but a potential Fourth Round clash with Milos Raonic could be a really tough match.

Well I would have been much more concerned about it if the Canadian has not been dealing with the injury issues he has been which forced him to pull out in Queens. Raonic did reach the Final in Stuttgart before falling to Roger Federer, but I just feel like he is still rebuilding his strength and confidence and I would back Cilic in that match on current form.

My feeling is that Cilic is going to be one of the Quarter Finalists in this section and he is most likely going to be opposed by Steve Johnson or Grigor Dimitrov. John Isner is also in this section and is most famous for the longest match in Wimbledon history, but his actually record at Wimbledon is pretty average for someone who serves as huge as he does.

The draw is perhaps not the toughest, but his compatriot Steve Johnson will likely oust him in the Second Round and that is where I think Johnson will be able to pick his way through the draw to the potential Fourth Round match with Dimitrov. These two have played some tough matches against one another in the past but I do think the Bulgarian is overrated on the grass thanks to past results and it would not be a massive surprise if Johnson was able to overcome him here.

It could be that Dimitrov is the fresher player coming into that Fourth Round though and that is a match to look forward to. I don't think it matters a great deal as to who will win as I would favour Cilic to be too strong for either and the Croatian will be part of my outright plan for this tournament.

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I think the Third Quarter of the men's draw is very intriguing with a number of leading contenders which means the favourite to reach the Semi Final, Novak Djokovic, is almost 2-1 to make it out of the section. I don't think Djokovic will have too many problems getting through the first couple of Rounds here after showing very strong form at Queens where he reached the Final and came close to beating Marin Cilic, things look very difficult from then moving forward through the draw.

At the moment Djokovic is not in the top 10 of the World Rankings which means the tough matches come a little earlier in the draw than he is perhaps used to. Kyle Edmund doesn't have a strong grass court record, but he is a tough match up in the Third Round while Karen Khachanov has the power to hit through opponents on this surface and has had some very strong results over the last twelve months to be anything but a difficult match for Djokovic in the Fourth Round.

The lower half of the Third Quarter is no less difficult to predict with Nick Kyrgios, Alexander Zverev and Kei Nishikori all involved in this section of the draw. My predicted draw had Nishikori coming through to the Quarter Final, but I wouldn't feel completely confident in that prediction as Kyrgios could turn on the style to reach that stage again.

I am less believing in Zverev who had some injury issue at the French Open and has had his difficulties on the grass in the past, but no matter who is able to get through to the Quarter Final it will be another tough match for Djokovic.

My lean is that Djokovic does come out of this section, but his price looks short with the matches he will have to face and I think the better angle may be finding plays in those tough matches when they come up if the market dictates.

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It has been seven years since Rafael Nadal last played in the Wimbledon Final and he has yet to get past the Fourth Round in the years since. In 2017 he was beaten in a tough match against Gilles Muller, but Nadal will arrive at SW19 with a lot of confidence having won yet another French Open title and I don't think the limited grass court play this summer is going to have a big impact on his play here.

The draw is not entirely straight forward with a couple of players in decent form over the last month who could cause problems. Mikhail Kukushkin reached the Semi Final in Eastbourne last week and he would be a potential Second Round opponent, while Mischa Zverev's serve-volley style took him to the title in Eastbourne and could face Nadal in the Third Round.

I do have to respect the potential those players have, but I would still think Nadal is going to be a little too good for them in a best of five setting and the majority of the dangers in the Fourth Quarter of the draw reside in the top half of the draw.

Juan Martin Del Potro, Feliciano Lopez, Jeremy Chardy and Andy Murray are in a small section of the draw which means only one of those players will be able to make it through to the Fourth Round.

I really don't know which of those is going to make it through to the Fourth Round, but my feeling is that it will be Del Potro.

I am not convinced about Murray's fitness to win three tough best of five set matches in a row especially with the kind of matches he has to face, while I think Del Potro can outhit Lopez and Chardy for long enough in potential matches to get past those.

Of course Murray could be a big danger if he gets through this section and through to the Fourth Round. His grass court pedigree can't be dismissed, but I do think Del Potro will be the biggest threat to Murray with his ability to power through the former World Number 1.

A player who could be a surprise to reach the Quarter Final is Matthew Ebden who has been in fine form over the last month on the grass courts. His opening match is against David Goffin which won't be an easy one, but I do think Ebden could have a deep run in the Wimbledon draw if he can get through that one and the Australian may hope he can face someone who has already had three tough matches in the Fourth Round.

It should be a fun Quarter of the draw, but I am leaning towards Nadal to form a part of my staking plan by having him come through the Fourth Quarter at a big price. It isn't an easy path through the draw but I think Nadal will be fairly happy with the way it has panned out and I expect him to grow into this tournament.

It has been a long time since Nadal has had a really big run at Wimbledon, but I can see it happening in 2018 and I will back him to make it out of this section of the draw.

BETTING STRATEGY

I am backing a couple of players to come out of a couple of the Quarters of the draw and both at a decent price.

For the outright winner I think it is hard to look past Roger Federer winning another title here in SW19 despite not looking at his best in Halle. However he won the title in Stuttgart and he has an opportunity to settle into the tournament with a kind draw giving him a genuinely decent path through the draw.

I think his biggest danger may be the potential Semi Final with Marin Cilic who came so close to beating Federer at the Australian Open back in January, but on this surface I think the World Number 1 will be the man to beat and I will back him to win yet another Wimbledon title.

BETTING PICKS :

So I have three outright bets to make in the mens draw :

• Roger Federer to Win the Title @ 2.87 Bet Fred
• Marin Cilic to Win the Second Quarter @ 2.50 Ladbrokes
• Rafael Nadal to Win the Fourth Quarter @ 2.62 Bet Fred

 

Sourced From : Gooners Guide To Tennis Betting

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