MLB Baseball
2026-06-29 - Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : Major League Baseball
Monday 29th June 2026 - Scheduled 6:40pm EST
11:40pm (British Time)
Preview
In relative terms to the size of the country, this is a series between two teams that are very close together, although that has not been the case on the field in recent seasons.
That may change in 2026 and especially if the Pittsburgh Pirates (42-42) can win this series against the Philadelphia Phillies (47-37) with both teams looking like they could push into the post-season. The Phillies expect that, but we are moving through the halfway mark of the season with the Pittsburgh Pirates more competitive than they have been in some time.
The Phillies have already swept a road series against the Pirates earlier this season, while Philadelphia have been putting the wins together more consistently than the visiting team. That has allowed the Phillies to move to within 3 games of National League East leaders Atlanta Braves, while Pittsburgh are 9.5 games out of the lead in the National League Central, but looking like they could compete for a Wild Card spot if keeping the roster together past the trade deadline.
Pittsburgh will hand the ball to Braxton Ashcraft in the first game of this new series and they have been very pleased with the sophomore pitcher. He has a 7-3 record and 3.07 ERA in sixteen starts and that comes after Braxton Ashcraft finished his rookie campaign with a 4-4 record and 2.71 ERA in eight appearances last season.
Having a much bigger sample size and a similar ERA will encourage the Pirates and Braxton Ashcraft has a 2-0 record and 2.12 ERA in his last three starts in June having opened the month by allowing six runs in 5 Innings thrown. Bouncing back as he has is a hugely positive sign for the pitcher and the team, and Ashcraft will be looking to do the same against a Philadelphia batting lineup that scored four runs in just shy of 7 completed Innings against him earlier this season.
The home team will counter with a veteran in Aaron Nola who has a 3-4 record and 5.58 ERA in sixteen starts of his own.
There will be some encouragement from the fact that Aaron Nola has a 1-0 record and a 4.80 ERA in his last six starts for the Philadelphia Phillies, while he completed 5 Innings and allowed two runs in his most recent start. One issue is that Aaron Nola continues to leave at least one or two pitches over the plate and that has meant allowing two Home Runs in each of the last three starts.
He actually duelled Braxton Ashcraft earlier this season, but Aaron Nola failed to make it through the 4th Inning after allowing six runs. That leaves Aaron Nola with a 4-3 record and 4.86 ERA from eleven career starts against this opponent.
Philadelphia swept the three game set on the road in May and also did the same in the last three game series hosting this opponent last season.
Prediction
Both starting pitchers have been knocked around by this opponent once this season and it could be another tough night for those heading onto the mound.
Out of the two, Braxton Ashcraft is certainly pitching with more confidence than Aaron Nola, but this Philadelphia batting lineup have found a really good rhythm at the plate and it could lead to another high scoring game.
It was Braxton Ashcraft and Aaron Nola on the mound in Philadelphia's 11-9 win over Pittsburgh in May, but while it is unlikely they get to that number of runs again, the two teams should at least combine for nine runs in this one.
The Pick :
Philadelphia Phillies 5-4 Pittsburgh Pirates
