NBA Basketball
2012-01-05 - Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Thursday 5 January 2012 - Tip Off 8:30pm ET
1:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The San Antonio Spurs (4-2) have made a decent start to the new season as the veteran group of players look to return to the Play Offs this season with the determination to put in a much stronger showing than when being bounced by the Memphis Grizzlies in the 1st Round last year.
San Antonio currently lead the SouthWest Division of the NBA, but they will do well to maintain that lead in the absence of Manu Ginobili who has been ruled out for 2 months with an injury that needed surgery. While the Argentine will be back for any Play Off series, he is a top player for the Spurs and his absence is a major deal for them.
It already seemed to show how tough life could be for San Antonio without Ginobili as they struggled to overcome the Golden State Warriors at home last night, and they needed a big effort in the final 7 minutes of that game to overcome an 8 point deficit to record the win.
Now they face the Dallas Mavericks (3-4), a team that is finally finding their identity since winning the Championship last season. There were some significant moves made in the off-season to set Dallas up for a chance to repeat, as well as being able to make major moves in the next Free Agency market, and Rick Carlisle is finally seeing the moves being justified.
Dallas beat Phoenix last night at home, and there were plenty of positives from the fact that Vince Carter, Delonte West and, perhaps most importantly, Lamar Odom all showing what they will be capable of for this team. The Mavericks have one of the deeper rosters in the NBA and also began finding their form in defense, something that had been missing since allowing Tyson Chandler to leave for the Knicks.
They have allowed an average of 90 points per game in their last 4 games, 3 of those ending in victories, a much improved number from the 108 they were allowing in their first 3 games. A win for Dallas tonight will allow them to move to within half a game of the lead in the Division.
Head to Head
San Antonio won 3 of the 4 meetings in the regular season last year, both straight up and against the spread.
They split the games played in San Antonio 1-1, both straight up and against the spread, but the Spurs have won 4 of their last 5 here in the series and are 3-1-1 ATS.
San Antonio are 3-3 against the spread this season, Dallas are 4-3.
San Antonio are 3-3 against the spread when set as the favourite, Dallas are 2-1 as the underdog.
Other Interesting Trends
San Antonio are 3-11-1 against the spread in their last 15 games overall.
They are 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games as the favourite of between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
The Spurs are 1-8-1 against the spread in their last 10 games against Divisional rivals.
Dallas are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games as the underdog being given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 22-7-1 against the spread in their last 30 games as the road underdog.
Prediction
I am going to take the points here and back the Dallas Mavericks for a second night in a row for the following reasons:
First, Dallas are beginning to transition the new players into their rotation and getting the best out of them, while the Spurs are missing a big component of their own rotation.
Second, Dallas have an impressive 7-3 record straight up in their last 10 games playing the second of back to back nights. They are 8-2 against the spread in those games.
Third, San Antonio are an older team and are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and put in a big emotional effort last night to fight back and win the game with Golden State. I am questioning how much the older players have to give in this game, regardless of its importance.
Fourth, the Spurs have struggled recently when playing the second of back to back nights. They have gone 3-7, both straight up and against the spread, in their last 10 occasions in this spot.
The Pick :
San Antonio Spurs 90-92 Dallas Mavericks