NBA Basketball
2012-01-06 - Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Hornets
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Friday 6 January 2012 - Tip Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Denver Nuggets (5-2) have made a fast start to the new season and it just seems this team lacking a one stand out star has really come together with plenty of depth in their rotation. The Nuggets could be a really dangerous team in the open Western Conference this season and will look to take advantage of a struggling New Orleans Hornets (2-4) squad.
Denver won their third game on the spin last time out as they dismantled the Sacramento Kings, but they will still want to improve on a performance that gave up 27 turnovers. However, the depth of their roster again came up as Al Harrington sunk 15 points off the bench, while the bench is averaging 11.9 assists and 20 rebounds this year.
There is a further boost for George Karl as it looks like Nene will return to the rotation having missed the last couple of games. Kosta Koufos has really filled in well for the big man, but Nene is a definite upgrade for the starting five.
New Orleans could have a tough time keeping up with Denver in this game as they are currently the lowest scoring team in the West, averaging 87 points per game, while Denver are allowing just 86 points per game on their three game winning run.
The Hornets were always likely to have a tough season after they lost David West to the Indiana Pacers and then traded away Chris Paul to the LA Clippers just days before the season was to start. With new players learning the system in place, the Hornets have found it tough to get going and have lost 4 in a row.
Trevor Ariza could be missing for the Hornets for a second game in a row, but they will look for Eric Gordon to build on his 22 points he scored last time out after missing 4 games through injury. While the starters have performed well for New Orleans, the bench does not offer the same depth as Denver and that could be tough to overcome.
Head to Head
New Orleans won 2 of the 3 regular season games last year, although they lost their most latest games against the Nuggets at home.
Denver have actually won 2 of their last 3 visits to New Orleans and they are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 trips to the Big Easy.
New Orleans are 3-3 against the spread this season, Denver are 6-1.
New Orleans are 3-2 against the spread when they have been set as the underdog, Denver are 4-0 as the favourite.
Other Interesting Trends
New Orleans are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games as the underdog between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games when playing on 1 days rest.
Denver are 22-5-1 against the spread in their last 28 games against a team with a losing record.
However, they are just 5-15 against the spread in their last 20 games as the road favourite of between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
Prediction
I am going to back the Denver Nuggets to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Nuggets have been a covering machine ever since they traded away Carmelo Anthony and I still don't think the layers have got a hold of this under-rated squad.
Second, New Orleans could be looking ahead to a big Divisional game against Dallas tomorrow night and have struggled in this spot. The Hornets have lost 5 of their last 6 when playing the first of back to back nights, although they are 3-3 against the spread in those games.
Third, the Hornets are not getting enough production from their bench and that is when the Nuggets can take advantage and perhaps end up pulling away for the win.
The Pick :
New Orleans Hornets 88-96 Denver Nuggets
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Denver Nuggets -4.5 Points @ 1.95