NBA Basketball
2012-05-03 - Miami Heat at New York Knicks
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off First Round
Thursday 3 May 2012 - Tip Off 7pm ET
Midnight (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Miami Heat have arrived in New York having won the opening two games of this series back in Florida, both in fairly routine fashion. With the injury to Derrick Rose of Chicago, there doesn't seem to be too many things that could prevent the Heat getting back to the NBA Finals after losing there last season.
The biggest story coming into game 3 of the series is simply what happened after game 2 was concluded- Amare Stoudemire allegedly punched his hand through the casing of a fire extinguisher on his way back to the locker room which has ruled him out of this game for the New York Knicks.
This is yet another blow to a short-handed team that has looked far short of the Heat in the series already. The rumours flew as to how bad Stoudemire's injury is, with some suggesting he is out for a couple of weeks at least, but he has suggested he will be back in time for game 4 which takes place on Sunday.
There has yet to be any reason for his outpouring of anger and it has surprised people with Stoudemire being one of the coolest players off court, but it may have been a lack of touches in game 2 as the chemistry between himself and Carmelo Anthony continues to be a problem.
Stoudemire has been absent plenty for the Knicks down the stretch and they did 9-4 in the 13 games he missed, but the Miami Heat were one of the teams that inflicted a loss on them in that time.
New York have struggled to contain LeBron James and Dwyane Wade already in the series and they figure to have just as tough a time as they host the Heat. Both James and Wade love playing at Madison Square Garden, with James averaging 29.9 points per game in the famous Arena (2nd most amongst active players) and Wade averaging 27.3 points per game (4th on same list).
The missing Iman Shumpert means Wade creates plenty of match up problems for the Knicks and now the absence of Stoudemire looks set to make it even more difficult.
Chris Bosh has left the Miami Heat to be with his wife at the birth of their son, but it has been reported that he is set to return to New York this afternoon and will be in the starting line up. Although still a game time decision, I expect he will start, but Shane Battier is on standby if needed to fill in.
Head to Head
The Miami Heat have now won all 5 games they have played against the New York Knicks in the 2012 season, and they have improved to 4-1 against the spread in those games.
New York lost their only home game against the Heat this season, both straight up and against the spread.
They are now 1-4 straight up and against the spread in the last 5 games they have hosted the Heat.
Other Interesting Trends
New York are 1-3-1 against the spread in their last 5 home games as the underdog being given between 5 and 10.5 points.
Miami are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road favourite of between 5 and 10.5 points.
Prediction
I am sticking with the Miami Heat to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Miami have the defence to keep constant pressure on Carmelo Anthony, while also limiting the effectiveness of the other starters. They have created plenty of match up problems in the first two games of the series and now face a team in disarray with Amare Stoudemire the latest to be sidelined.
Second, the Heat have dominated the Knicks in recent games, winning the last 4 by at least 8 points each.
Third, this series has a similar feel to the one Miami played a year ago when they beat the Philadelphia comfortably in the first two games before taking the third... It was only then they let off slightly by losing game 4 on the road- I expect the Heat to be fully focused tonight to leave them close to moving through.
Fourth, this is a favourable number for Miami who have gone 15-9 against the spread when favoured on the road between 3.5 and 6 points.
The Pick :
New York Knicks 91-99 Miami Heat
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Miami Heat - 5 Points @ 1.95
