NBA Basketball
2012-05-03 - Oklahoma City at Dallas Mavericks
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Western Conference Play Off First Round
Thursday 3 May 2012 - Tip Off 9:30pm ET
2:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The defending Champion Dallas Mavericks are in a real hole as they bring this First Round series back to the American Airlines Center, but they have been more than a little unfortunate to find themselves 2-0 down to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The first two games of the series have been decided by a combined 4 points- the first was settled by a Kevin Durant shot that seemed to hit the rim and then take an eternity to land in the basket, that coming with 1.5 seconds left for Dallas to respond as they were beaten by 1 point.
The second game saw the Mavericks miss two attempts to tie the ball game and send it into Overtime as time was running out in a 3 point loss and it is fair to say that Dallas will be disappointed they have not come home with at least a split in the series.
All of that now means there is plenty of pressure on the reigning Champions to secure the two wins on home court before we head back to Oklahoma City, especially as it seems that Kevin Durant has not been at his best in the first couple of games.
Durant may have scored the winning basket in game 1, but he is just 15-44 from the field in the first couple of games. Russell Westbrook is carrying the load for the Thunder by averaging 28.5 points per game so far, while Scott Brooks is not worried that his MVP contender will be back to his best sooner rather than later.
Head to Head
Oklahoma City's two wins in this Play Off series means they have won 5 of the 6 meetings between the teams in 2012, including the last 4 in a row.
While the Thunder have been picking up the W's, it is actually the Mavericks who are 5-1 against the spread this season.
This will only be the third visit to the American Airlines Center in Dallas where they have both won 1 game this season, straight up and against the spread.
Oklahoma City are 9-2-1 against the spread in their last 12 games in this arena.
Other Interesting Trends
Dallas are 6-2-1 against the spread in the last 9 games against teams with winning records on the road.
Oklahoma City are just 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
They are 1-11 against the spread in their last 12 games against teams from the Southwest Division.
Prediction
This has been a fascinating series already with two close games and I am going to take the points and side with Oklahoma City in another close one that can go either way. I like the Thunder for the following reasons:
First, games between these two teams have been very close affairs for much of the season so it is no surprise to see that the road team is now 34-15-2 against the spread in the last 51 games in the series. Even more telling as to how close these games are is the fact that the underdog is 19-6-1 against the spread in the last 26 games in the series.
Second, the Thunder have been strong against the spread when visiting Dallas in recent seasons.
Third, I expect Kevin Durant will eventually find his form and I can see him having a really big game either in this one or in game 4. The Thunder have other options too that are firing so they should be able to keep this together.
Fourth, Dallas have struggled with expectations as the favourite. They are 7-14 against the spread when favoured by 4.5 points or less this season, while going just 4-9 against the spread when favoured at home by between 3.5 and 6 points.
Finally, the Thunder have not been dogged by more than 3 points in any game this season and I just feel they are being given a little too many points in a game that could easily be decided by a couple of points either way.
The Pick :
Dallas Mavericks 98-97 Oklahoma City
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Oklahoma City Thunder + 3.5 Points @ 2.00
