NBA Basketball
2012-05-09 - LA Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Western Conference Play Off First Round
Wednesday 9 May 2012 - Tip Off 9:30pm ET
2:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is the latest in the First Round Play Off series that could be completed tonight as the LA Clippers look to complete the win after bringing in a 3-1 lead from Los Angeles against the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies will have expected a lot more from their themselves having reached the Semi Finals of the Western Conference last year, but they have been on the wrong end of a number of close games to fall into this hole.
It tells you all you need to know that the four games so far in the series have been won by a combined 13 points- in fact, the LA Clippers can tell you that their three wins have come by a combined 6 points. This is how close the series has been as we have had the big comeback win and the overtime win and it just seems the Grizzlies have been on the wrong side of all those.
The Clippers can be really thankful to Chris Paul for the chance of winning only their second post-season series since moving to LA from Buffalo- Paul has been close to unstoppable for the Grizzlies and it is no surprise that he is averaging 23.5 points per game and 8.8 assists to help the Clippers into this spot.
It has seemed that Lionel Hollins has been out-coached by Vinny Del Negro, but the bigger issue for the Grizzlies has been the inability to get Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph working down the stretch. Gasol figured to be a big factor in the series and was one of the reasons I thought the Grizzlies would edge the series in 7 games.
However, he has recorded just one double-double in the first four games, and neither him nor Randolph have been able to get close to the basket late in games.
Head to Head
The LA Clippers are now leading the season series 5-2 after pulling out a lead in this First Round series. They are also 4-2-1 against the spread in those games.
Memphis have won 2 of the 3 games that have been played here, going 1-1-1 against the spread in those games.
The Grizzlies are 7-3 in their last 10 home games against the Clippers, although they are only 5-4-1 against the spread in those games.
Other Interesting Trends
Memphis are just 3-8-1 against the spread in their last 12 games as the home favourite of between 5 and 10.5 points.
They are 2-7-1 against the spread in their last 10 games against teams from the Western Conference.
Prediction
This has been a ridiculously tight series so far and I think game 5, no matter who wins it, will be yet another to add to that list. Therefore, I can only recommend taking the points and backing the LA Clippers for the following reasons:
First, as I said above, this series has been ridiculously tight considering the first four games have been won by a combined 13 points. To be getting half of those on the Clippers looks a tad high no matter how important it is for the Grizzlies to win this game and extend the series.
Second, the Grizzlies are not the team that will blow out an opponent nor be blown out and it is telling that they are just 4-7 against the spread when favoured to win by between 5 and 7.5 points.
Third, the Grizzlies have struggled in a revenge spot, going just 14-19 against the spread in that position this season.
The Pick :
Memphis Grizzlies 101-97 LA Clippers
