NBA Basketball
2012-05-10 - Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off First Round
Thursday 10 May 2012 - Tip Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Boston Celtics were desperate to close out this First Round series when they travelled to Atlanta on Tuesday night in the hope that it would allow them to rest some of their older players for the Semi Final with either the Philadelphia 76ers or the Chicago Bulls.
With 10.9 seconds left, Rajon Rondo stole an inbound ball but just lost control as he looked to pass the ball to Kevin Garnett for the winning basket as the Celtics were beaten by 1 point and allowed the Atlanta Hawks to stick around for at least one more game.
The final game of this series would go back to Atlanta, so now the Celtics will look to close out in Beantown and at least give their players the same kind of rest Philadelphia would get if they too close out their series on the same night.
Boston have a couple of players playing through the pain barrier at the moment, the most important of those being Paul Pierce, although he did say he wasn't feeling much discomfort when playing on Tuesday night. Avery Bradley is another that has a couple of niggles, but the return of Ray Allen has been a success so far.
Atlanta are also suddenly getting a lot healthier with Al Horford starting game 5 and his size is going to cause Boston another headache. Horford had 19 points and 11 rebounds in the win on Tuesday night and was backed by Josh Smith who had 13 points and 16 boards. Smith missed game 3 and is still experiencing some issues with his knee, although he is not willing to sit at this vital stage of the season.
Head to Head
Boston lead the season series between the teams 5-3 after Atlanta picked up the win in game 5.
The Celtics are also leading 5-3 against the spread in those 8 games between the teams.
Boston are now 13-2 in their last 15 home games against Atlanta, winning the last 4 consecutively. Those 15 games have ended 9-6 against the spread in favour of the Celtics.
Other Interesting Trends
Boston are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the home favourite of between 5 and 10.5 points.
They have won their last 8 games against the spread against a team with a losing record on the road.
Atlanta are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record at home.
They are 9-4 against the spread in their last 13 games as the underdog.
Prediction
I am going to take the underdog Atlanta Hawks to at least go down fighting, if they are to go down, and will take the points in this one for the following reasons:
First, Atlanta are as healthy as they have been in this whole series and I think that has given them the chance to actually change their offensive game plan which can cause the Celtics some problems.
Second, Boston have dominated their home games against the Hawks in recent meetings, but it is still telling that they are just 2-4 against the spread in their last 6 here against Atlanta.
Third, the Hawks are one of these teams that tend to the opposite of what is expected of them- when they are expected to win big, they struggle, when they are expected to lose, they tend to fight. With that in mind, many will be expecting Boston to close this series with style, while I think the Hawks can surprise and make a fight of this.
The Pick :
Boston Celtics 87-84 Atlanta Hawks
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Atlanta Hawks + 6.5 Points @ 1.95
