NBA Basketball
2026-04-25 - Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : NBA Basketball Playoffs First Round Game 4
Saturday 25th April 2026 - Scheduled 8:30pm EST
1:30am (British Time)
Preview
There was a tetchy ending to Game 2 and things only ramped up ahead of Game 3 when Jaden McDaniels not only criticised some of the Denver Defensive players, but actually went ahead and listed them out before doing so. There would have been some serious egg on the face if the Minnesota Timberwolves had not dominated Game 3 in the fashion they did, while McDaniels backed up his words by putting up a Double-Double of 20 Points and 10 Rebounds.
Prior to the game, the Denver Nuggets refused to get involved in the trash-talking and instead wanted to focus on their ability on the court, but the late scratch of Aaron Gordon hurt their prospects. He is one of the top Defenders the Nuggets have, regardless of what an elite Defender like Jaden McDaniels thinks of him, and Denver struggled to make too many stops without him.
They have slipped into a 2-1 deficit against a Minnesota team that have upset them before in the post-season and there is a lot of pressure on the Denver players to make adjustments with a day of rest between games.
Having Aaron Gordon back would be a positive, but there have to be questions about how ready he is to compete at this level, while Denver cannot afford too many more 25% success rates from three point range. A big problem is that the Nuggets are massively reliant on Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, but both are having issues in this Series and the complement players are simply not able to pick up the slack on the Offensive side of the court.
The raw numbers may say Jokic and Murray combined for 43 of the 96 points scored by Denver in Game 3, but they were incredibly inefficient points- the two top Denver players went 12-43 from the field, while just 2-15 from the three point range, and that means they had more than half of the Field Goal attemps.
With that being said, another inefficient shooting day could do for Denver and they are under big pressure.
Minnesota might have also struggled from the three point range, but they spread the points around and that meant a much stronger overall record from the field. Anthony Edwards is the undoubted star, but the Timberwolves finished Game 3 with two players who had more points than him, while Edwards was one of five different players that put up at least 15 points.
Four players had at least 14 points in the Game 2 upset on the road and the Minnesota Timberwolves will certainly begin Game 4 with a lot of confidence.
The spread does look tough to call with some expectation that the Denver Nuggets make adjustments to perhaps get back on track, but the total line looks too big.
Neither team has been shooting the ball that well from the three point range, while the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets are both decent Defensive teams, even if Jaden McDaniels would disagree. Two of the three games in this First Round Series have finished well below the total line set for Game 4 and backing the Under looks the play in what could be a pivotal battle in this Western Conference war.
Prediction
Look for the Defensive units to continue to play hard and restrict this Game 4 to below the total.
The Pick :
Minnesota Timberwolves 111-108 Denver Nuggets
