Spanish La Liga
2010-11-29 - Barcelona vs Real Madrid
A Sports Betting Pick by Caged
Barcelona
2nd Place
Home Record W4 D1 L1 GF12 GA5
Theres been plenty written about this game already in the other previews and I wont repeat the huge amount of content thats been written here and elsewhere on this, the most spectacular match in world football (in my opinion).
Its very, very rare you get an opportunity to back Barca at odds against at home and I wouldnt put anyone off backing a side of Barcas quality at these odds.
Every time Barca have played Madrid in the last two years I have though Barca were too short and that Madrid were the value call. Everytime, Barca have won. This time I think the odds are probably about right, and in simple terms you can make a case for all three outcomes being value calls (or, more likely bearing in mind the overround, none of them).
So basically, form goes out of the window on this one. Results and performances of the two sides shouts goals, but there isnt usually a lot of goals in this fixture and Mourinho wont be putting a gung ho side out. The value is probably in the under 2.5 goals, but while its a shrewd bet, backing it ruins the game as a spectacle.
The big names like Messi and Ronaldo have a habit of not doing it in games like this, so they are best avoided in the goalscorer markets.
Looking to the other markets, cards is one that is interesting. Spanish games statistically see a lot of cards. Its a cultural thing, Spanish crowds want to see flamboyany attacking flair, and dont have the same appreciation of defending and physical play that you get elsewhere. The refs give the crowd what they want to see, and come down hard on any rough play. Combined with the usual latin falling over and card waving antics, this genereally means a lots more cards than you would see in other leagues.
Now Barca arent a dirty side and dont generally received a lot of bookings. But in a highly charged game like this, the stakes are high and the line between success and failure so fine, that they will do everything they can to get an advantage. They have players who are no stranger to a booking....Pique has 5 in 10 games, Busquets, Mascherano (unlikely to start) and Puyol all see their fair share of the curly finger.
In the last four league meetings with Real Madrid at the Camp Nou, Barca have averaged 3.25 cards. It would be no surprise if this wasnt matched or increased with the frustration and intensity of playing a Mourinho side.
Real Madrid
1st Place
Away Record W4 D2 L0 GF10 GA3
Real Madrid have a poor recent record against Barca. They simply arent quite in the same class. Although they are much improved under Mourinho, you suspect they are still a team of individuals rather than a team, but then that is an easy accusation against any team that contains Ronaldo.
The difference this year is Mourinho, and that difference could be huge.
Im not a fan of the Special One, I dont like his anti football approach and the sycophants who worship the ground he walks on in this country.
However, one thing Mourinho does know how to do is set up his team, any team, to win a one off game of football. And he also knows how to beat Barcelona. He has a W3 D3 L4 record against them in recent years, not outstanding on its own but Im pretty sure that is better than anyone else, and is even more impressive when you consider he usually has an inferior side.
And talking of anti football, he certainly knows how to send out a team who will stop at nothing to win. That means stretching and bending the rules and taking advantage of diving, systematic fouling and pressuring referees.
While Madrid are not receiving a lot of bookings this year that is generally because they are beating teams comfortably and have no need to get involved in the dirty stuff.
At Barcelona in the last four years, Real Madrid are averaging 4.625 cards a game.
Summary (the bit you scroll down to see to avoid reading all the rubbish above)
So, going with the averages, we can expect around 8 bookings here. Add in a card happy referee, who averages 7 bookings a match, and we can go overs on the card line of 7.5 bookings with reasonable hope of a return. It is a huge line to cover, but it would have hit in three of the last four meetings.
The big danger here is that Real Madrid behave themselves after the controversy of the deliberate sending offs against Ajax. But I dont think Mourinho cares about that. He will be desperate to put one over Barcelona, his former employers and his nemesis, and will stop at nothing to achieve it.
The Pick :
Barcelona 1 Real Madrid 1
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Asian total cards: Over 7.5 at 1.875 (bet365)
