Newcastle United vs Arsenal Betting Pick | English Premier

English Premier

2011-08-13 - Newcastle United vs Arsenal

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Newcastle United v Arsenal
Football : English Premier League
Saturday 13 August 2011 - Kickoff 5:30pm
This game is live on TV

Newcastle United

To say it has been a turbulent Summer at St James' Park would be an understatement as the club threatens to collapse around itself. Players have taken to Twitter to air their grievances and that has led to a number of personnel leaving the club and putting a lot of additional pressure on Alan Pardew to get things right.

The latest player to depart Tyneside is Jose Enrique who moved to Liverpool and that means they have lost Andy Carroll, Kevin Nolan and Enrique with the future of Joey Barton up in the air following news that Newcastle were willing to let their influential midfielder leave on a free transfer. The signing of Demba Ba on a free looks like a good piece of business but I am still a little more than surprised that they decided to splash the cash on Gabriel Oberton of Manchester United.

Newcastle surprised me somewhat by finishing as high as 12th in the Premier League last season, although the tight nature of the bottom of the table means they were only 7 points better off than those sides relegated.

The Magpies proved to be a tough nut to crack at home, finishing with a 6-8-5 record. They scored 41 goals in those games, meaning only Manchester United scored more home goals all season and the Champions, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and Spurs all failed to win here. Newcastle only lost 1 of their last 9 games at home in the Premier League.

Hatem Ben Arfa is the only player missing for Alan Pardew so the likes of Oberton, Yohan Cabaye and Demba Ba are all set to make their debuts. Mike Williamson, Danny Guthrie and Shane Ferguson are all available after recent injuries.

Arsenal

While things at St James' Park have been turbulent, plenty of things have been brewing at the Emirates Stadium where the futures of Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri remain clouded in doubt. Both players have been expected to leave the club in the near future but Arsene Wenger almost suggested that would not be happening this morning.

Regardless, the fans are beginning to get on the back of the management as yet another season has gone by without a trophy. The frustration is clearly increasing as it looks the side is capable of getting over the silverware line IF Wenger buys a commanding centre back and tough midfielder. There are serious concerns that the side may struggle to make it back to the money generating Champions League if their 2 key midfielders leave the club.

Arsenal finished 4th in the Premier League meaning a Champions League qualifier next Wednesday. It looked like being a very promising season when they were still involved in all 4 competitions, but that fell apart in a 3 week period and the questions surrounding the sides fragility were raised again.

The Gunners finished with the most away wins in the Premier League along with Manchester City last season. Their away record was 8-7-4, scoring 39 goals but conceding 28. Even with that strong away record, it was telling that they won just 1 of their last 7 away games.

Samir Nasri and Cesc Fabregas have both been left out of the squad with the reasons being given as an illness and lack of match fitness respectively. Robin Van Persie and Kieron Gibbs both face late fitness tests, but Abou Diaby and Jack Wilshire are missing. Thomas Vermaelan and Theo Walcott are both travelling with the squad to the North East.

Head to Head

Who can forget this corresponding fixture from last season? Arsenal were leading 0-4 in the game before a Diaby sending off led to a capitulation and a fortunate 4-4 draw.

Arsenal have won just 1 of their last 5 visits in the League to St James'.

It is interesting to note that the last 2 games here in the League have seen 8 goals combined and 4 goals combined, but 10 of the previous 11 games between the sides had ended with 2 goals or less.

Prediction

Arsenal had been priced up as the 1.80 shots to win this match before all of the news of the last few days and their price has subsequently shot up. Personally I would not touch this side with a bargepole considering their record at St James' Park and the fact they are going to be missing a number of influential players.

Does that mean Newcastle are a good bet? I would say no to that too as they are another team with plenty of problems in the background that has derailed their Summer.

The one thing you can count on is the passionate home support who will feel Arsenal are there for the taking and that could inspire a good performance from the home side. I wouldn't be surprised if Arsenal did win, but this has the makings of a tight game and there does not seem to be a lot of value picking the away side with the amount of issues they have.

Both teams have been known for their attacking ability, but it did stick out the amount of times the Under 2.5 goals has come in when they play one another at this ground. With many attacking players out for the away side, and Newcastle losing their influential midfield players like Barton and Nolan, I think we could see yet another low scoring game.

I can see Alan Pardew setting his team out to be very tight and not give the away side space to perform- without Wilshire, Fabregas and Nasri, I think Arsenal may find it tough to break Newcastle down and the Under 2.5 goals looks better value than picking either side to get the result.