English Premier
2011-08-27 - Swansea vs Sunderland
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : English Premier League
Saturday 27 August 2011 - Kickoff 3pm
Swansea
It has been a tough start to this season for Swansea, one that seemed to hit a new low as they were dumped out of the Carling Cup by Shrewsbury. The team lost 3-1 after leading and Brendan Rodgers described it as his worst moment as a manager.
Swansea may consider themselves a little fortunate to have picked up their first point of the season last week and would have been very thankful to their new number 1 goalkeeper, Michel Vorm, who saved a penalty against Wigan to earn a 0-0 draw. The Swans were given a harsh lesson on the opening day as they were beaten 4-0 at Manchester City.
The lack of goals could be a concern for Rodgers, especially considering the only 1 they have scored this season in all competitions was actually an 'own goal'. Swansea did extend their unbeaten record at the Liberty Stadium to 10 games with the draw against Wigan and they have won 7 of those games, although the vast majority were Championship games.
Garry Monk is back in training but wont be available for the first team until after the international break. Ferrie Bode is out, although they have a full squad to choose from otherwise.
Sunderland
Anyone who 'follows' me on Twitter would have read my concerns before the season started about the number of goals Sunderland would score considering they had reinvested much of the Darren Bent transfer fee on midfielders and defenders. These concerns seem to have finally been realised by Steve Bruce after a Carling Cup exit in a competition he had stated he wanted to win.
Sunderland have failed to score in their last 2 games against Newcastle United and Brighton in the Carling Cup. They have picked up 1 point from their opening 2 games of the season, but the lack of options in the final third is a real concern. My surprise at Bruce's lack of movement to buy a striker was due to the fact that only 3 teams had scored less goals in the League than Sunderland last season and they had sold Darren Bent in the last window.
The Black Cats must feel they have run one over as they have lost 11 of their last 17 competitive games, winning just 3 of them. Sunderland are unbeaten in their last 3 away games in the Premier League in the back end of last season and following their draw at Liverpool this season. Sunderland have failed to score in 4 of their last 8 away games in the League.
John O'Shea should be in line to make his competitive debut for his new club following a hamstring injury. Phil Bardsley is back in the squad after completing a one game suspension.
Head to Head
Swansea and Sunderland have not met since the 1982/83 season when they were both in the top flight.
Prediction
Both of these sides have been struggling to score goals and the Under 2.5 Goals market has been priced up accordingly.
Swansea have a lot of pace in the final third, but I have not been convinced that Danny Graham can score the goals that it is going to take for them to survive in the top flight.
Sunderland look really light up front and I am very surprised that Steve Bruce has not thought about bringing in another forward other than Connor Wickham, a player that looks more for the future than for now. After losing the experience of someone like Darren Bent, and the undoubted quality of Danny Welbeck, it looks like the side are far too reliant on Asamoah Gyan to score the goals.
Picking a winner in the game looks tough, so I have stuck with my belief that we may not see many goals by looking at the 'Both teams to score' market instead.
The option of one, or both, of these sides failing to find the net has been priced at a reasonable 1.92, 0.20 points higher than the Under 2.5 Goals market.
While it does not cover the 1-1 option that would still win in the Unders market, the 1.92 still looks the way to go here in a game that may only take 1 goal to settle.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Swansea 1-0 Sunderland
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Both teams NOT to score @ 1.92 (Paddy Power)
