NFL Football
2011-10-02 - Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 4
Sunday 2 October 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The 'Suck for Luck' campaign hots up at Arrowhead this week as one of these teams will have to have won their first game of the season, while the loser will get ahead in their bid to draft Andrew Luck next April. Both may not have won yet, but the Minnesota Vikings (0-3) have reached this stage in a much different way than the Kansas City Chiefs (0-3).
Minnesota have had double digit leads in the 2nd half of every game so far this season, but have managed to blow all 3 of those either through silly mistakes or bad coaching. It was Leslie Frazier's decision to go for it on 4th and 1 at the Detroit 17 that did not allow them to pad their lead when they were already up by 3 last week.
It wasn't a bad coaching decision because Frazier went for it, but it was when he decided to give the ball to Toby Gerhart rather than Adrian Peterson who had carved up the Lions in the first half. The Lions got the ball, tied the game and went on to win in OT.
Adrian Peterson should have a big game this week against a Chiefs Defense that really struggles to stop the run and was shredded by Ryan Mathews of San Diego last week. The Vikings will need Peterson, because Donovon McNabb looks like he is on his last legs as a starting QB in this League, while the loss of Sidney Rice is hurting the passing game.
Even with these blown leads, Minnesota look to be in a stronger position than a Kansas City team that has been decimated by injuries to their best players and have not really been able to do a lot on Offense since losing Co-Ordinator Charlie Weis and replacing him with Head Coach Todd Haley.
They have scored just 27 points this season and have struggled to move the chains both on the ground and through the air as they have been blown out by Buffalo and Detroit while playing better at San Diego.
Jamaal Charles' injury means the Chiefs will rely on Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluskey in the backfield, but you cannot expect them to get much joy against the Vikings that are holding teams to 67 yards per game this season. That means there will be more pressure on Matt Cassel, a QB that is struggling even more than McNabb.
The Defense has already lost their inspirational leader Eric Berry this season, and could also be without Brandon Flowers (CB) for this game.
Head to Head
Being in opposite Conferences means these teams will only meet once every four years, unless they get to the SuperBowl.
Kansas City beat Minnesota by 3 points here when they last met in 2007.
Kansas City are 1-2 against the spread this season, Minnesota are 1-1-1.
Other Interesting Notes
Kansas City are 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 games against a team with a losing record on the road.
They are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 home games.
Minnesota are 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 games on the road.
They are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road favourite of between 0.5 and 3 points.
87% of the wagers in Vegas have been placed on Minnesota.
Prediction
I may need my head testing, but I am going to take the Minnesota Vikings to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Kansas City tried their heart out against San Diego last week but still came up short although they still struggled to move the chains.
Second, Minnesota will force Kansas City to beat them through the air and have only been torched by top quality QB play from Matt Stafford, Josh Freeman and Philip Rivers, QBs that Matt Cassel cannot really hold a candle to.
Third, Minnesota have blown leads in all 3 games this season, yet have bounced out to an early lead in their next game. This character they display means they should still be focused after a heartbreaking loss, and the Chiefs are not a team that will be able to come back from a big deficit.
It's best to get on the spread now as it only seems to be getting higher and higher on the Vikings as people are beginning to realise how bad this Kansas City team is. You can still get the 1.5 point spread at Pinnacle, but the Vikings are very short there, so I will take the 2.5 point spread before it reaches the key number of 3.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Kansas City Chiefs 13-17 Minnesota Vikings
