Rugby
2011-10-16 - New Zealand vs Australia
A Sports Betting Pick by Paddy
Rugby : Rugby World Cup 2011 : Semi Final 2
Sunday, 16th October 2011 - Kickoff 21:00 (local)
A match which many expected to be this year’s World Cup Final pits the two best teams in world rugby against one another. Rivals Australia take on New Zealand in Auckland with the hosts determined to finally capture another world title.
Hosts looking to justify their tag as favourites
New Zealand have marched imperiously to the semi-finals and remain the clear favourites to capture their first World Cup since 1987. Five straight wins including an ultimately comfortable 33-10 victory over Argentina have seen the All Blacks into the semi-final and the home support will expect their team to overcome their Tri-Nations rivals this weekend.
New Zealand have been jinxed at fly-half in the tournament so far with the mercurial Dan Carter and his replacement Colin Slade both ruled out through injury. Third choice Aaron Cruden is likely to start for the All Blacks on Sunday with Stephen Donald answering a call-up to be on the bench.
Graham Henry’s resources are stretched for this match with experienced full-back Mils Muliaina also missing through injury and doubts over Israel Dagg, Richard Kahui and Zac Guildford.
The coach said: “We’ve lost the first two blokes chosen [at fly half] and that’s a setback, that’s the reality of it. We have a group of players who have been on standby. We didn’t announce that group and we won’t announce that. “We’ve got less players here than overseas. Have we got the depth? We’ll find out next week.”
This could, and maybe should, have been the final pairing...
Australia the one team capable of defeating the favourites
Australia have long been the second favourites to lift their third World Cup but if the Wallabies are going to add this year’s title to their wins in 1991 and 1999 then they are going to do it the hard way.
A surprise loss to Ireland earlier in the tournament left them in the tough half of the draw and Australia had to produce a fantastic defensive performance last weekend to see off South Africa 11-9. If they are going to reach the final, the Wallabies must now beat the hosts and favourites.
Full back Kurtley Beale is ‘touch and go’ to be fit after suffering a hamstring strain towards the end of their quarter final and fly-half Quade Cooper is likely to have to play much better than he did against the Springboks.
Centre Adam Ashley-Cooper certainly hopes that Beale will be fit. He said: “He’ll be a massive loss for us because Kurtley provides so much to the team, not only in attack but just in the mood and excitement of the group. We certainly have our fingers crossed for Kurtley.”
Australia lost 30-14 to New Zealand in this year’s Tri-Nations at this venue, although they did gain revenge by winning the return fixture 25-20 in Brisbane. And, scrum-half Will Genia is ‘100% confident’ they can repeat their win.
He said: “I don’t know if I could be more confident. I don’t want to sound arrogant, I’m not that sort of bloke. I really believe in the guys that we have in this group that we can do it. “We’ve got to put ourselves in a position where we can play rather than looking to defend for the whole game. “We want to play to our strengths, which is obviously our attacking style of running rugby. We need to give ourselves that opportunity.”
The Verdict
This promises to be a cracker of a match. The two sides know each other well and results between the pair have been mixed over the last couple of years.
New Zealand have home advantage and the desire to finally reclaim the world title, but they are struggling with injuries. Australia are probably the one team capable of beating the All Blacks but will have to play better than they have in the tournament so far.
Taking into account home advantage and recent form I’d have to side with hosts and they should be good enough to overcome the 7 point handicap.
The Pick :
New Zealand to reach home final
