NCAA Football
2011-10-22 - Texas A&M Aggies at Iowa State Cyclones
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 8
Saturday 22 October 2011 - Kick Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is a Big 12 contest as the Texas A&M Aggies (4-2) attempt to keep up with the cream of the Conference, while the Iowa State Cyclones (3-3) have struggled after a strong start. The Aggies are 2-1 in Conference play this season, the Cyclones are 0-3.
A couple of second half collapses have prevented the Aggies from being unbeaten at this point of the season, with a 1 point loss to Oklahoma State and a 4 point loss to Arkansas attributed to being heavily outscored in the second half of games. However, they have bounced back from those back to back losses with consecutive wins and remain in the hunt in the Big 12.
Texas A&M are averaging 527 yards per game in total Offense, good enough for 7th in the nation. They are averaging just under 300 yards of passing Offense thanks to Ryan Tannehill who has 13 TD passes and 6 Interceptions this season. But don't be fooled into thinking that is the only reason for their success as they have found plenty of balance in their Offense behind the running of Christine Michael and Cyrus Gray.
Michael and Gray figure to have a really big game against the Iowa State Defense that has allowed 217 yards per game on the ground this season. The Cyclones have allowed 14 TDs on the ground alone this season and I figure they are going to have a tough time stopping Texas moving the chains as they cannot load the box with someone like Tannehill behind Center.
Iowa State's passing Defense is pretty good, but that could also be because teams have found it so easy to ground and pound against them.
The Cyclones will look to move the chains themselves using their own rushing attack, but that has been the strength of a Texas Defense that has struggled against the pass. The Aggies are allowing just 72 yards per game on the ground at 2.2 yards per carry, and teams are being forced to move away from this if they want to keep up with the Aggies scoring Offense.
Steele Jantz should find some success through the air against a Defense that has allowed 361 passing yards per game, but Iowa State have struggled with this aspect of their game. Jantz has 10 TDs and 8 Interceptions on the season and could find himself in trouble as the Aggies have an exceptional pass rush that provides 4.3 sacks per game.
The Cyclones Offensive Line has already struggled to keep Jantz upright and this could be highlighted if the team falls behind early and is forced to throw the ball to keep up with Texas.
Texas A&M have not managed to secure too many turnovers this season, but they do have a chance against a Iowa State team that has already given up 18 this season.
Shontrelle Johnson (RB) has been ruled out for the rest of the season for the Cyclones so James White will get the bulk of the carries for the rest of the year. The Offensive Line will also be missing the two starters that were injured in the defeat to the Texas Longhorns.
The Aggies could be missing a couple of key components in their Defense which would aid their passing Defense. Coryell Judie (CB) is listed as questionable for this game, and he is thought to be the best Corner on the team, while Tony Jerod-Eddie (DE) is also listed as questionable.
Head to Head
Texas A&M beat Iowa State by 25 points when they last met in Texas in 2009.
The Aggies are 3-1 against the spread in the last 4 games in the series. They are also 3-0, both straight up and against the spread, in the last 3 games played in Iowa State.
The road team is 5-1 against the spread in the last 6 games in the series.
Both teams are 2-4 against the spread this season.
Other Interesting Trends
Iowa State are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games as the home underdog. They have lost their last 5 games against the spread in Conference play.
Texas A&M are just 4-10 against the spread in their last 14 road games. They are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as the favourite of 10.5 points or more.
They are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games in Conference play.
Prediction
I like the Texas A&M Aggies to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I just don't see how Iowa State can stop Texas moving the ball up and down the field and I imagine the Aggies will be able to score on most drives barring any big mistakes.
Second, Iowa State's Offense has been inconsistent and the Offensive Line will have trouble containing the Aggies pass rush which may lead to shortened drives and turnovers.
Third, the Cyclones must be incredibly short of confidence as they have lost 3 games in a row by an average of 27 points per game.
Fourth, Texas A&M have a great record when visiting Iowa State in recent years.
I would lock this down now before the line moves back up to 21 points. You can find a 20.5 point line at most places at the moment.
The Pick :
Iowa State Cyclones 24-51 Texas A&M Aggies
