Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Betting pick | 2011-10-29

NCAA Football

2011-10-29 - Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Oklahoma Sooners @ Kansas State Wildcats
United States: NCAA Football Week 9
Saturday 29 October 2011 - Kick Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

Everyone in the NCAA World expected to see an unbeaten team in this game, but I would wager no one outside of Manhatten would have believed that it would be the Kansas State Wildcats (7-0) and not the Oklahoma Sooners (6-1) who were beaten for the first time last week. The winner of this game will be very much in line to win the Big 12 Championship this season, although Oklahoma State will have something to say about that.

A lot of the 'experts' picked Texas Tech to cover the huge spread last week when they visited Oklahoma, but no one could have really anticipated them winning outright. It was a surprising upset that could very much be the end of the National Championship hopes for the Sooners who now must run the table, win the Big 12, and hope that is good enough for them.

This is not an easy game for the Sooners as they face a surprising Kansas State Wildcats team that were expected to struggle this season, but have found a way to stay unbeaten while winning 4 of those games as the underdog.

In Landry Jones, the Sooners have one of the best QBs in the nation and he is expected to be the 2nd QB taken in the NFL Draft in April next year behind Andrew Luck. Jones completes 65% of his passes, and has thrown 21 TDs and 7 Interceptions this season and the passing Offense should be able to move the chains against the Wildcats. Oklahoma will have to be wary of the Kansas State pass rush, although they have protected Jones very well this season.

Jones being successful through the air could open up some running lanes although the Wildcats have been very strong against ground attacks this season. Kansas State are only allowing 3 yards per carry this season and under 100 yards per game total rushing.

The Sooners Defense was given a punch in the mouth last week against Texas Tech, and they will be looking to bounce back by making the Kansas State Offense one-dimensional this week.

Kansas State have hammered teams on the ground this season, averaging 213 yards per game on the ground, but they will be facing the strength of the Oklahoma Defense that has only allowed 3.1 yards per carry. This will be the way the Wildcats will attempt to move the ball in this game as their passing game has not really been as effective.

Chris Klein is the QB for the team, but it is telling that he has just 8 TD passes compared to 14 rushing TDs this season. He did throw for a career high of 195 yards last week, but will have big trouble against the Sooners if he is forced to throw against them. Oklahoma have a very good pass rush, while the Wildcats have struggled to protect Klein when he moves into passing downs so the key will be to move the chains on the ground if they want to stay in this game.

The passing game for Kansas State will not be helped by the absence of Sheldon Smith (WR) who remains questionable for this game having missed the last 2 weeks.

Oklahoma will be boosted by the return of Dominique Whaley (RB) who missed the loss last week. Whaley has 9 TDs rushing this season and his return will at least give the Offense a boost. Tom Wort (LB) has been ruled out after missing last week too, and he was 3rd on the team in amount of tackles made this season.

Head to Head

Oklahoma beat Kansas State by 12 points at home last season to extend their winning run to 4 in a row in the series.

They also beat Kansas State by 23 points in their last visit to Manhatten.

Kansas State are 4-2 against the spread in the last 6 games in the series.

The road team is 7-2-1 against the spread in their last 10 games in the series.

The underdog is 5-2-1 against the spread in their last 8 games in the series.

Kansas State are 6-1 against the spread this season, Oklahoma are 4-3.

Other Interesting Trends

Kansas State have won their last 4 games against the spread in Conference play.

They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games at home.

They are 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 games against a team with a winning record on the road.

Oklahoma are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games in Conference play.

They are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road favourite of 10.5 points or more.

They are 19-7 against the spread in their last 26 games following a straight up loss.

Prediction

I am liking the Oklahoma Sooners to bounce back with a big win in Manhatten for the following reasons:

First, the Sooners are coached very well and will not suffer an emotional letdown from their defeat last week and have managed to get back on the horse after previous defeats.

Second, a lot of people are saying the National Championship chances of the Sooners has gone with the loss last week but consider this... Oklahoma could run the table and win the Big 12 with just 1 loss and wins over a team like the Oklahoma State Cowboys, while one of LSU/Alabama will not have a Championship. Stanford have to play Oregon, a game they could lose, and all of a sudden the Sooners will likely be the 2nd team in the big game and that is something they will be aware of.

Third, Oklahoma's Defense was abused last week, but their strengths match up with strength of the Wildcats Offense and that could make life a little easier for them this week.

Fourth, Oklahoma have played very well against Kansas State in recent seasons, including a big road win the last time they played in Manhatten.