NCAA Football
2011-11-05 - Michigan Wolverines at Iowa Hawkeyes
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 10
Saturday 5 November 2011 - Kick Off 12pm ET
4pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
In a surprising turn of events, the Michigan Wolverines (7-1) have taken control of the Big Ten Legends Division after the Michigan State Spartans were beaten by Nebraska last week. That means the Wolverines would win the Division if they can run the table and get to play in the Big Ten Championship game, although they have a tough test to get by as they travel to face the Iowa Hawkeyes (5-3).
The Wolverines recovered from their disappointing defeat to inter-state rivals Michigan State by defeating Purdue comfortably last week to put themselves back in line to win the Division and improved their Conference record to 3-1. Iowa lost ground on the top teams in the Division when they lost at Minnesota as the 14.5 point favourites, and that loss dropped them to 2-2 in Conference play.
Michigan figure to have success moving the ball in this game as they face an Iowa team that has struggled to stop teams all season. The Wolverines are very much a run first Offense, especially with Denard Robinson at QB, and they have been averaging 5.9 yards per carry which bodes well against an Iowa team that has allowed almost 4 yards a carry in games so far.
Robinson already has 10 TDs rushing the ball this season, which is just 1 less than his passing has provided, but he should be able to get things moving through the air in this game too. The Hawkeyes Defense has allowed QBs to complete 66% of their passes this season, and they fail to generate a real pass rush.
With the running game likely to be leaving Michigan in short and manageable situations, I expect they will be able to move the chains consistently throughout the 60 minutes of game time.
Iowa figure to give Michigan's tough Defense a bit of a work out this week as they have averaged 400 yards of total Offense per game this season. The Hawkeyes will look for James Vandenberg to continue his fine season in which he has thrown 17 TD passes and just 4 Interceptions and he should be able to get something going against the Wolverines Secondary.
Vandenberg should be protected by his Offensive Line against a strong pass rush the Wolverines generate because the Hawkeyes should be able to run the ball and keep him in short and manageable situations themselves. Iowa pick up 4.5 yards per carry this season and have the top rusher in the Big Ten in the form of Marcus Coker who is just 31 yards from reaching 1000 for the season.
Michigan allow 4.4 yards per carry on the ground and this could be the key battle of the day if the Wolverines can slow the running game down and allow their pass rush to get off the edge and after James Vandenberg.
Iowa will be boosted by a few returning players this week, none more important than Keenan Davis (WR) who is the 2nd leading receiver for the team. Davis did not play last weekend against Minnesota, but was cleared and perhaps saved with this game in mind.
Michigan too could have a big player back this week in the form of Jordan Kovacs (S), who is leading the team with 3 QB sacks this season and is also 3rd on the team in amount of tackles recorded.
Head to Head
Iowa beat Michigan by 10 points in the Big House last week as the 3.5 point favourites.
That was the second game in succession that they have beaten Michigan, but they have never won 3 games in a row in the series.
Michigan had won 3 games in a row against the spread before that loss last season.
The underdog is 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 games in the series.
The road team is 4-1 against the spread in the last 5 games in the series.
Iowa are 3-5 against the spread this season, Michigan are 6-2.
Other Interesting Trends
Iowa are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the home underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 31-12-1 against the spread in their last 44 games following a straight up loss.
They are 1-6-1 against the spread in their last 8 games in Conference play.
Michigan are just 7-18 against the spread in their last 25 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 5-22 against the spread in their last 27 games in Conference play.
Prediction
I am going to back the Michigan Wolverines to reverse some recent trends and win this game while covering the spread for the following reasons:
First, their Offense will pose plenty of problems for an Iowa Defense that has struggled to stop anybody this season and who have not played an Offense as good as this one.
Second, Michigan's Defense has been playing far better this season than last year and I feel they are capable of making enough stops and keeping Iowa out of the End Zone to win this game.
Third, I think Denard Robinson is the wild card in this game and could be the difference between the winners and losers.
The Pick :
Iowa Hawkeyes 27-31 Michigan Wolverines
