Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans Betting pick | 2011-11-06

NFL Football

2011-11-06 - Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans
United States: NFL Football Week 9
Sunday 6 November 2011 - Kick Off 4:05pm ET
9:05pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

If you had told me at the start of the season that this would be a game between two teams that are looking to get in the mix for Play Off positions, I would have asked for you to be sectioned. However, the fact is the Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) are level with the Baltimore Ravens and 0.5 games behind Pittsburgh in the AFC North, while the Tennessee Titans (4-3) are just 0.5 games behind Houston in the open AFC South.

Neither team was expected to be relevant this season, but I have been more impressed with the Bengals who have been earning the wins behind a really good Defense and efficient play from their rookie QB Andy Dalton. The QB has 9 TD passes and 7 Interceptions this season, but he is not making the big big mistakes that have cost the team and Marvin Lewis could not ask for any more.

Dalton may have a tougher time against a Tennessee Defense that has been strong against the pass this season, although they are struggling to get pressure on the opposition QB of late. That should provide Dalton with time to find his big time receivers like AJ Green and Jerome Simpson who have combined for 6 TDs this season. The Titans have 3 sacks in the last 3 games.

It may be easier for Dalton as the Titans have struggled to stop the run in recent games, giving up 5.1 yards per carry since Week 5. While Cedric Benson is only averaging 3.9 yards per carry this season, he should have some more success this week and at least give his QB a chance in short and manageable situations and earn decent field position for the Defense to protect.

The Bengals Defence is only allowing less than 300 yards of total Offense per game, and they should be able to slow down the Tennessee Offense that has really struggled in the absence of Kenny Britt to spread the field.

Tennessee gave Chris Johnson a huge contract in the off-season, but the running back has struggled so much that he was actually benched for Javon Ringer last week. Johnson does not seem himself and is earning a horrible 2.8 yards per carry this season, a far cry from the back who rushed for 2000 yards in a season recently, and he does not figure to get much out of a Bengals Defense that allows 3.3 yards per carry.

That will mean the pressure will be on Matt Hasselbeck and the passing game to get the chains moving, but Cincinnati have a very strong Secondary that have made it difficult for teams to pass on them. They also have an effective pass rush that will make the opposition QB hurry their passes and this looks a difficult game for the Titans to move the chains with any sort of consistency.

Head to Head

Tennessee won by 17 points when the teams last met in 2008, covering the 1 point spread in the win too.

The last few games in the series have been split 2-2, both straight up and against the spread.

The Titans are 2-2 at home in the last 4 games in the series against the Bengals, both straight up and against the spread.

The road team is now 5-2 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series.

Tennessee are 3-4 against the spread this season, Cincinnati are 6-1.

Other Interesting Trends

Tennessee are 17-8-1 against the spread in their last 26 games as the home favourite of between 0.5 and 3 points.

They are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up win of 14 points or more.

Cincinnati are 6-1-1 against the spread in their last 8 games as the road underdog of between 0.5 and 3 points.

They have won their last 8 games against the spread against teams from the AFC.

The Bengals are 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games as the road underdog in consecutive road games.

Prediction

I am going to take the points on this occasion and back the Cincinnati Bengals for the following reasons:

First, I think the Bengals are the better team and the Titans should not be laying points to anyone since they lost Kenny Britt.

Second, the Bengals have thrived in a situation where they are considered the underdogs in back to back road games, especially the second game.

Third, Cincinnati will make it very tough for the Titans to move the chains here with their tough Defense and that could lead them to having the better field position for their own Offense.

Fourth, it may be a tough spot for the road team with Baltimore and Pittsburgh on deck but I don't believe this is a meaningless game for them as they play an opponent that could very much be a rival for a Wild Card spot in the Play Offs so there is no way the Bengals want to have a head to head loss on that front.