NFL Football
2011-12-04 - Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 13
Sunday 4 December 2011 - Kick Off 4:15pm ET
9:15pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Arizona Cardinals (4-7) are almost completely out of the NFC Play Off picture as they are 5 games behind the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West, and also 3 games behind any teams that are looking to get into the Wild Card berths. There should be plenty of confidence in the Cardinals dressing room considering they have won 3 of their last 4 games.
This week they will entertain the Dallas Cowboys (7-4), a team that have taken control of the NFC East thanks to 4 consecutive wins. The Cowboys will know they can extend their lead over the New York Giants if they can win as the Giants are facing Green Bay, and that should leave them in good stead as we enter the final month of the season.
Dallas figures to be without Miles Austin again this week, but their Offense has not really be slowed down in his absence as Laurent Robinson has stepped up to the plate, including 2 TD catches on Thanksgiving Day. Coupled with Dez Bryant, the Dallas passing game should keep the chains moving against an ordinary Secondary. Tony Romo should have a big game as long as he is given a bit more protection from his Offensive Line.
With the passing game likely to get going, DeMarco Murray should find plenty of running lanes to exploit, even though the Cardinals have been stout against the run for the most part. With more men moving into coverage, the hard running style of Murray should allow him to move the chains effectively from draw plays and even when used in little screens from Romo.
Kevin Kolb will at least be returning to the line up for the Cardinals, but his effectiveness will all be based on whether Beanie Wells can get the running game going. Wells and the Cardinals have been able to run the ball effectively for much of the season and should have some success against the Cowboys Defense that has not been as stout as they were in the early part of the season.
That should leave Kolb in short and manageable situations and also negate the Cowboys pass rush which has generated 30 sacks this season. This can only be good news for an Offensive Line that has allowed 36 sacks this year and will at least make Arizona effective at moving the ball in the contest.
Head to Head
Dallas and Arizona met each other here last season on Christmas Day, with the Cardinals coming away with a 1 point win as the 7 point underdog. That is the 2nd consecutive win for Arizona at home against the Cowboys.
Dallas are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 games in the series.
Arizona are 6-5 against the spread this season, Dallas are 4-6-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Arizona are 15-5-1 against the spread in their last 21 games as the home underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points. They are 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games against a team with a winning record.
Dallas are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points. They are just 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Prediction
I am going to back the Dallas Cowboys to come through with a big win on the road for the following reasons:
First, the Cowboys have had 10 days to prepare for this game and should be motivated enough to take control of the Division before the game against the New York Giants next week.
Second, the Arizona Secondary has really had a hard time for much of the season and Tony Romo has been playing well enough to take advantage.
Third, Kevin Kolb will really have a hard time keeping tabs on the Cowboys if they fall in a hole and have to move away from the running game.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Arizona Cardinals 17-24 Dallas Cowboys
