NCAA Football
2011-12-24 - Nevada Wolf Pack at Southern Mississippi
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA College Football Bowl Game
Saturday 24 December 2011 - Kick Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (11-2) surprised everyone by beating the Houston Cougars and winning the Conference USA Championship- for that they have been rewarded with a trip to Hawaii for this Bowl game and they have a chance to send Larry Fedora to North Carolina with one more win in this very productive season.
The Golden Eagles will be facing the Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5) who missed on the WAC title to the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, a team that clearly showed their ability in losing a close game to the TCU Horned Frogs on Thursday night in San Diego.
Southern Mississippi have a very powerful Offense and they should have a decent day against Nevada as long as they are not overwhelmed with being on the Island on Christmas Eve. The Offense gets things going with the running game that has generated 5.3 yards per carry this year and they should not have too many problems getting established against the Nevada Defense who have allowed just under 150 yards per game on the ground this year.
This is a big problem for Nevada as being unable to stop the run will mean they have to bring more men up to the line of scrimmage, which will open up all sorts of passing lanes for Austin Davis. The QB has thrown 28 TD passes and 11 Interceptions this season and has broken many records that were set by Brett Favre no less. The Wolf Pack don't really get enough pressure to make life difficult for Davis and it will be tough for them to stop Southern Mississippi moving the chains with consistency.
Nevada were expected to have a drop off this season as they introduced a new QB to their system and a 1-3 start seemed to bore that out. However, Cody Fajardo quickly got his game going once given the opportunity midway through the season and he has proven to be an effective dual threat. Fajardo only threw 6 TD passes with 5 Interceptions, but he is accurate and has helped the team get a huge number of yards through the air. In this game, Fajardo will be facing a ball-hawking Secondary that will create turnovers and he may be under pressure if the running game can't get going.
Fajardo has 11 TDs on the ground this year and he is 3rd on the team in number of yards gained on the ground, but they face a Golden Eagles Defense that has allowed just 3.2 yards per game on the ground. The Wolf Pack have run the ball effectively, but this is their biggest test, and they don't really want to leave Fajardo in obvious passing situations as that could quickly lead to trouble.
Head to Head
These two schools have not met since back to back games in consecutive years in 1997 and 1998.
Southern Mississippi won both of those games by double-digits.
Southern Mississippi are 8-4-1 against the spread this season, Nevada are 5-7.
Other Interesting Trends
Southern Mississippi are 5-2-1 against the spread in their last 8 games as the favourite.
They have won their last 4 games against the spread against teams with winning records.
Nevada are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the underdog.
They are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games on a neutral site.
Prediction
I am going to back the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles now before the spread gets too high. The spread has already moved around 1.5 points in their favour, but I still like them for the following reasons:
First, the Golden Eagles have a very powerful Offense and I don't think we are going to see too many punts from them in this game.
Second, the team should play hard for Larry Fedora in his final game as Head Coach and they will want to send him off on a high after his achievements at the school.
Third, Nevada face a really tough run Defense and that could lead to them having to air the ball out more than they would want to, which in turn could lead to turnovers against this opportunistic Secondary.
The only worry for me here is whether the Southern Mississippi players are enjoying their surroundings more than taking an interest in the game (Hawaii is a great place to spend Christmas), while Nevada have played here twice in recent years. However, I am going to back the Conference USA Champions to sign off on a successful season with one more cracking win.
The Pick :
Southern Mississippi 31-20 Nevada Wolf Pack
