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2012-01-11 - Manchester City vs Liverpool
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Carling Cup Semi Final First Leg
Wednesday 11 January 2012 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Manchester City
Manchester City claimed the moral victory from their FA Cup defeat by Manchester United at the weekend, believing they are still in control of the momentum after fighting back from 0-3 down to lose 2-3 despite playing with a man disadvantage for much of the game. Roberto Mancini has made it clear that his side want to win trophies this season, so I expect them to take this game very seriously.
The team are still the favourites to win the Premier League as they hold a 3 point lead over their nearest rivals and also a vastly superior goal difference. City have had an exceptional record at home over the last 12 months, although their defeat to United means the end of a long unbeaten run.
City have won 1 of their last 4 games in all competitions, but that was a League game here against the same opponents they play today. They had won 21 of their previous 22 games at home in all competitions before the loss to Manchester United, and United were also the first team since Leicester City in January 2011 to score more than 1 goal against City here.
Vincent Kompany begins a 4 game suspension following his controversial sending off on Sunday. Mario Balotelli, Edin Dzeko and David Silva are all considered doubts for this game, but Gareth Barry is back from suspension. Yaya and Kolo Toure are with the Ivory Coast in preparation for the African Cup of Nations.
Liverpool
Liverpool moved through to the next round of the FA Cup on Friday night and were paired with old enemy Manchester United meaning their chances of earning a trophy in Kenny Dalglish's first season back at the club looks under threat. The biggest ambition remains getting back into the Champions League, although Dalglish has played a strong team in this competition and I don't expect that to change.
The Reds are 6th in the Premier League table, but they are only 3 points behind Chelsea in the race for the Champions League places. They have actually won more away games this season than at Anfield and are 5-1-4 in the Premier League. The biggest problem all season has been a lack of goals for the team, although they have scored at least 2 goals in each of their Carling Cup games away from home this season.
Liverpool's 3-0 loss at Manchester City was their only one in their last 7 games in all competitions. The team comes into this one having failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away games in all competitions and will continue to miss the presence of Luis Suarez up front.
Suarez continues his 8 game suspension in this game, while Kenny Dalglish is expected to bring back the likes of Glen Johnson, Jose Enrique and Andy Carroll into the starting line up. Steven Gerrard will also continue in the side, but the status of Stewart Downing is unknown after he was arrested for alleged assault over the weekend.
Head to Head
This will already be the third meeting between the teams this season with Manchester City winning the most recent game 3-0 at home. The other ended in a 1-1 draw at Anfield.
Manchester City have now won their last 2 home games against Liverpool, both 3-0, and have only conceded in 1 of their last 6 games at home against the Reds.
Prediction
This should be an interesting first leg of the Semi Final, especially in trying to figure how each of these sides will set up to play.
Roberto Mancini recognises how tough his side are at home and will be boosted by the return of Gareth Barry to shore up a midfield that looked a little exposed in the first half against Manchester United even taking into account the fact they were down to 10 men after only 12 minutes.
I think Savic can take his place at the heart of the defence to cover the absence of Kompany, while there is still enough magic in the side to unlock Liverpool if they decide to sit back and soak up the pressure.
Liverpool were forced to open up and attack a little more when they met in the League game here as they fell behind early and I think Dalglish will set up his side in a manner to make them hard to beat and look to give themselves a chance to go through at Anfield.
I just feel City's second half performance against United has given them plenty of belief and confidence and Mancini will look for his side to take an advantage to Anfield in a fortnight. I'll be backing City to take a small lead to Liverpool.
The Pick :
Manchester City 1-0 Liverpool
