Europa League
2012-02-22 - Manchester City vs Porto
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: European Europa League, Last 32 Second Leg
Wednesday 22 February 2012 - Kick Off 5pm
This game is live on TV
Manchester City
Manchester City will know they have one foot into the last 16 of the Europa League for the second season in succession, but they will also show the reigning Champions plenty of respect after winning a tight battle 1-2 in Portugal last week. A lot of the focus before this game has centred on the apology sent out by Carlos Tevez to the club for his actions over the last six months, as the Argentine looks to recover his fitness and take part in the home run this season.
With no Premier League games scheduled last weekend, the City squad should be well rested and fully focused on completing their triumph over the current Europa League Champions. They have been perfect in the League this season at the Etihad Stadium and also went 2-1-0 here in the Champions League group stages, although they were behind against both Napoli and Villarreal.
City come into the game off 3 consecutive wins in all competitions and the have won back to back games here since losing consecutive games to Manchester United and Liverpool in the two domestic Cup competitions. The team have won 6 of their last 7 European games at this stadium, and they have only conceded 3 goals in that run.
David Platt suggested that the manager is likely to make some changes to his starting line up in Europa League games when they have Premier League commitments between ties, although I still feel Roberto Mancini will play a strong team here as they had a free weekend. However, with Blackburn Rovers coming here on Saturday evening, I expect some changes to be made.
Porto
Porto come here with absolute belief in their ability to turn around the first leg deficit. This confidence can only be given further credence when considering they lost the home leg to Sevilla at this stage last season but managed to get through on away goals from their success in Spain. While they have to do that in reverse fashion this time, Porto do feel they can do so with their attacking ability.
It was a good weekend for the side as they managed to close the gap on Benfica in the Portuguese domestic League and are now just 2 points behind their old rivals in the bid to retain their title. Porto have a 5-3-1 away record in the League, but they were just 1-0-2 in the Champions League group stage on their travels.
The team won 1-3 in their last away game at the weekend, but they had failed to win their previous 2 games on the road before that, including a surprise defeat at Gil Vicente. Last season, Porto won 7 away games in a row in this competition before losing at Villarreal, meaning they have lost 3 of their last 4 away games in Europe.
Full backs Danilo and Alvaro Pereira are both missing through injury and suspension respectively.
Head to Head
This will be their first competitive game played in Manchester.
Prediction
There is no way that we can expect Porto just to roll over considering they have won this competition the last two times they have taken part in it in it's different guises, but the 1-2 defeat at home last week leaves them in a very awkward position.
The problem for Porto is that they have to score at LEAST two goals here and that is going to leave spaces for Manchester City to exploit, much as they did for the last goal in the first leg last week.
City will enjoy the space they are afforded by Porto and I think it will be tough for Porto to pick themselves up if they do fall behind.
The last time Porto visited England in a two legged tie, they conceded very early to Arsenal after drawing 1-1 at home, and that led to a 5-0 crushing as they had to keep pushing forward in search of goals.
Now I don't think they will take a hammering of that magnitude, but there is enough sense to think they will be picked off by a City side that will not need to do too much more than play counter-attacking football. However, the home side have been playing very aggressively here all season and they do have a habit of being free-scoring at home.
With the whole situation in mind and believing Porto are unlikely to stop attacking, I think taking City to cover the 1 goal on the ENGLISH handicap could pay dividends.
They have been extremely strong at home and the 2.75 offered at Coral looks very high as they could easily pick Porto off on the counter attack if they do move ahead in the game today.
The Pick :
Manchester City 3-0 Porto
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll try Manchester City -1 Goal (English Handicap) @ 2.75 (Coral)To collect Man City must win by a 2+ goal margin - and there is NO refund if it's a single goal margin.
