Rugby
2012-02-25 - Ireland vs Italy
A Sports Betting Pick by Paddy
Rugby : Six Nations 2012
Saturday 25th February 2012, 13:30 (local) - Dublin
Ireland kick off their second Six Nations fixture this Saturday as, for the first time in 27 years, their match a fortnight ago in France was called off due to a frozen pitch.
The postponement has given Ireland additional time to prepare for the rest of their campaign which begins with a home tie against Italy.
Declan Kidney’s side are still coming to terms with their last-gasp home defeat to Wales, but have never lost to Italy in the Six Nations. A foregone conclusion in Dublin on Saturday, then?
Ireland
After the late postponement of Ireland’s match against France a fortnight ago, it’s tricky to assess their current form. Captain Paul O’Connell blamed individual mistakes for the Irish’s narrow opening weekend defeat to Wales whilst coach Declan Kidney called on Ireland to be ‘more ruthless’ after the 23-21 reverse.
I don’t expect wholesale changes for Ireland ahead of the clash at the Aviva Stadium which means Jonathan Sexton and Donncha O’Callaghan are likely to keep their places.
However, Ireland will have to defend better than they did against Wales. There were huge holes in their defence in that match and a number of missed tackles also cost them dear.
Ireland do have plenty of attacking ability, though as they proved in their 36-6 win over this weekend’s opponents in Dunedin at the 2011 World Cup.
Ireland can't afford any mistakes Saturday after their opening round loss to Wales
Italy
Despite two defeats to England (15-19) and France (12-30), Italy have plenty to be positive about this weekend.
The Italians scored two excellent tries against England a fortnight ago after defensive mistakes and that narrow defeat followed up a solid performance against Les Bleus at the Stade de France.
Jacques Brunel’s team have gradually been improving over recent years and, as their win over France in 2011 showed, they are not far off being able to compete regularly with the big boys of world rugby.
However, it’s worth bearing in mind that Italy haven’t won in Ireland since a 37-29 win at Lansdowne Road in the pre-Six Nations days of 1997.
Head to Head
23 Mar 2002 Ireland 32-17 Italy at Lansdowne Road
30 Aug 2003 Ireland 61-06 Italy at Limerick
20 Mar 2004 Ireland 19-03 Italy at Lansdowne Road
04 Feb 2006 Ireland 26-16 Italy at Lansdowne Road
24 Aug 2007 Ireland 23-20 Italy at Belfast
02 Feb 2008 Ireland 16-11 Italy at Croke Park
06 Feb 2010 Ireland 29-11 Italy at Croke Park
Ireland have won all seven "home" encounters in the last 10 years - but the margin of victory has been narrowing as Italy improve and have started to score tries.
Verdict
I don’t think there’s much doubt that Ireland will continue their sixteen match winning streak against Italy this weekend, but it could be a closer match than the betting suggests.
Ireland have won the last five meetings in Dublin by 18, 5, 10, 11 and 15 points and so taking into account this weekend’s 15 point handicap, you’d have profited from backing Italy on four of these occasions.
Saying that, Ireland beat this weekend’s visitors 36-6 in October, although I think Italy have improved since then. Ireland should get their campaign up and running on Saturday, but I’d be tempted to back the visitors with a 15 point start at 10/11.
The Pick :
Back Italy with a +15 point headstart
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Yes Ireland will almost certainly win - but odds of less than 1.10 show that it's only a bet for heavy hitters.HANDICAP BETTING TIP :
Main Bet :Back Italy with a +15 point start at 10/11 (at Paddy Power)
