English Premier
2012-03-24 - Arsenal vs Aston Villa
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Saturday 24 March 2012 - Kick Off 3pm
Arsenal
Arsenal are very much on course to returning to the Champions League after a very impressive run of form has been found at just the right time. They received a few breaks of fortune in their win at Goodison Park on Wednesday, but you have to have a lot of respect for their belief when finding late goals at Liverpool and against Newcastle United to earn some big wins.
The Gunners moved up to 3rd in the Premier League table with the win at Everton coupled with Tottenham Hotspur's failure to beat Stoke City at White Hart Lane on the same evening. That means they are now 6 points clear of 5th placed Chelsea, but they cannot afford to let up with just 9 games left to play this season. Arsenal are 10-2-2 at the Emirates Stadium, scoring 31 goals and conceding 12.
They have now won 5 games in a row in all competitions and I think a lot of Arsenal fans, as well as Spurs fans, will point to their recovery from 0-2 down to Spurs at home when winning that game 5-2 as being a turning point in both clubs seasons. The team have won their last 5 games at the Emirates since losing 1-2 to Manchester United and they have scored 20 goals in those 5 wins.
Injuries are beginning to clear up a little bit for Arsene Wenger, although he will still be missing Jack Wilshire, Abou Diaby and Per Mertesacker. Andre Santos is available for selection after a three month lay-off and could replace Kieran Gibbs at left-back.
Aston Villa
It is going to be a big off-season at Villa Park I think, especially considering how disgruntled the fans have been in Alex McLeish's first season in charge. Charles N'Zogbia was also quoted as being critical towards his manager, but McLeish will be hoping to put this all aside for the final 9 games in what has been a pretty disappointing campaign.
Villa are 15th in the Premier League table, but they should have done enough to be safe from the drop with a 10 point advantage to 18th placed Bolton Wanderers. However, McLeish will be hoping a strong run of form to end the season can propel the team up the table with only 5 points separating them from 8th placed Swansea. Villa have been tough to play away from home as they have recorded a 3-8-3 record on their travels, scoring 16 goals and conceding 18.
The team have picked up 5 points from their last 3 Premier League games, beating Fulham 1-0 last time out courtesy of an injury time goal. Villa have failed to win any of their last 4 away games in all competitions and they have scored just 2 goals in their last 3 Premier League away games coming into this one.
Darren Bent is out for the season and that leaves Villa short of options up front, especially with Robbie Keane also returning to LA. Richard Dunne is absent until next month, while Ciaran Clark will be hoping to return to the squad for this game.
Head to Head
Arsenal have won both meetings against Aston Villa this season, one of those in the FA Cup, although Alex McLeish may be disappointed his side have not had more to show from those games.
Arsenal had to come back from a 0-2 deficit at the Emirates Stadium in the FA Cup to beat Villa 3-2, while they needed a late goal to win 1-2 at Villa Park in the League.
Villa do have a good record at Arsenal in recent Premier League games, losing just 1 of the last 5 games here and also winning on 2 of their last 3 visits.
Prediction
There are times in football where things just seem to be going, or not going, for a team in such a manner that you think it is only inevitable that they will gain or lose what they are striving for.
Arsenal are playing with the 'inevitable' belief that they are going to finish 3rd in the Premier League and we have seen that with either late goals to keep this winning run going, or, in the case at Everton, getting the rub of the green when it comes to poor decisions from the officials.
The Gunners are not the only team that will have these factors come into play as we have seen through the years the eventual winner of the title can point to these occasions, as well as teams that are sadly relegated can point to the 'turning points'.
The home team have been freely scoring at home in recent weeks, averaging 4 goals per game over their last 5 at the Emirates Stadium, and that is going to cause problems for a Aston Villa side that looks like they may struggle for goals in the absence of Bent and Keane.
With Arsenal playing the way they are, I would be surprised if they don't continue their hot streak in front of goal at this stadium and that may be enough for them to cover the Asian Handicap.
It is hard to see where the Villa goals will come from in this game, so I will look for Arsenal to win this game by a couple of goals.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Arsenal 2-0 Aston Villa
