Euro 2012
2012-06-10 - Spain vs Italy
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: Euro 2012 Group C
Sunday 10 June 2012 - Kick Off 5pm
This game is live on TV
Preview
This is one of the glamour ties of the group stages as two nations that have enjoyed considerable successes since the turn of the century meet each other in the first game of the group stages.
Spain are the reigning European and World Cup winners, although they don't seem to have too many friends in the outright market for this team with a few questions to answer about their squad. While they remain the favourites, I would call them an 'uneasy favourite' with the punters and bookmakers alike.
The problem for the Spanish is the fact that David Villa and Carlos Puyol, two very important players at both ends of the field, are missing from the tournament through injury. Villa's absence has led to questions about where the goals will be coming from in the side, while Puyol's absence means they look a little vulnerable at the heart of the defence.
They did cruise through their qualification section by winning all the games they played and they are now on a run of 14 competitive victories since losing to Switzerland in the World Cup group stage two years ago. However, those injuries I mentioned have left people wondering how far this team can go as they try and win a third major championship in succession, something that has not been done before.
Italy have struggled in recent friendlies and they have been hit by a match fixing scandal back home, but those same issues didn't stop them winning the World Cup in 1982 and more recently in 2006. They are no longer the stereotypical Italian side of the past that is based solely around an impregnable defence and Cesare Prandelli has made sure he has his side playing good attacking football where possible.
They have some real talents in the squad, but have looked a little light up front and that could lead to a few issues in a tough looking group alongside Spain, Croatia and the Republic of Ireland. However, they did very well to remain unbeaten in their qualifying section which included Serbia and Slovakia, two teams that played at the World Cup in South Africa, so confidence should still be high despite defeats to the USA and Russia in friendlies.
The whole key to their tournament could rest in how the players deal with the fallout back home from the match fixing allegations and anything less than the Quarter Finals is going to be seen as a big disappointment.
Head to Head
These two nations actually met in the Quarter Finals of Euro 2008, a game that was decided by a penalty shoot out as the Italians were the only team that the Spanish failed to beat on their way to winning the event.
That game was their first competitive meeting since Roberto Baggio scored twice in a World Cup Quarter Final back in 1994 to help Italy to a 2-1 win.
Italy beat Spain in a home friendly in August 2011 in their last meeting.
Prediction
This is a really hard game to read in my opinion as there are issues surrounding both teams that have to be resolved and we won't really see the answers to those issues until the game is played.
Italy will be dealing with the match fixing scandal back home and it is hard to know how the players are feeling about those events- will they wilt, or will they play as they did in the World Cups of 1982 and 2006 and band together to win the tournament?
Spain themselves have to work out where their goals will be coming from in the absence of David Villa, while their inspirational leader Carlos Puyol will be missing from a backline that can look a little vulnerable when teams go at them.
The opening group games bring their own anxieties as a defeat can already put a team in a tough spot with just two games left to get themselves out of a hole. With that in mind, you have to think it will be a tense game and one that could be shorn of goals.
Spain are likely to play their possession football, while Italy will look to get at them on the counter attack and we could see a game with few chances.
While Spain did score quite a few goals enroute to winning Euro 2008, I think this game may follow a pattern that was more associated with their World Cup campaign that saw them win 4 consecutive games 1-0 in the knockout stages (the Holland game finished 1-0 in extra time). The Under for this game has been priced up plenty short, but I think it is worth taking a small interest in there being less than 1.5 goals in the match.
The importance of not losing the game may drive that on and with the additional questions on the Spanish attacking, I think the Under 1.5 goals stands a chance. Spain will have most of the possession so they should be able to limit the Italian chances due to that and I can see a solitary goal separating the sides in this one.
The Pick :
Spain 1-0 Italy