Euro 2012
2012-06-16 - Czech Republic vs Poland
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Euro 2012 : Group A
Saturday 15th June - Kickoff 7:45pm
Czech Republic
The Czech's are back in this fight for qualification following their 2-1 win over Greece. With 3 points and more importantly 1 ahead of Poland with 2, it's in the Czech's hands if they qualify. If they win they make the last 8, a draw virtually puts them through and a defeat is elimination.
Most readers know that I'm not the Czech's biggest fans, I rate them the worst team at these Championships and nothing has changed that opinion. Russia beat them comprehensively 4-1 despite Kerzhakov missing 7 attempts. Then Greece handed them 2 goals in the first 6 minutes which completely rattled Santos's side who despite getting 1 goal back, didn't find enough for an equiliser.
A positive sign for Bilek's side is that they have scored in both games and are favourites to get at least one on Saturday evening. If they do score and I expect them to, then pretty much the bare minimum Poland need is 2 goals and that seems a lot.
No clean sheets in 2 games is the counter argument but when you consider that Cech made an error against Greece and then was beaten softly for 2 Russia goals, I'm not sure how good the back line really is.
I do like Pilar and Plasil who provide a threat going forward, Galatasaray striker Baros has been poor but if he gets a good chance I expect him to take it. Interestingly in 5 previous games v Poland the Czechs have won 2 and lost 3. So with no draws the trends suggest a clear winner will win this one and despite my negativity to this side, Bilek's men deserve their odds on price to qualify.
Poland
Smuda's Poland remain unbeaten after 2 games but also sit in third place. The good news for Poland is that a win on Saturday over the Czechs will give them a place in the last 8 as they leap frog their opponents into at least second place.
In the first game, Poland looked irresistible for 45 minutes, creating chance after chance eventually going in at the break 1-0 up thanks to Lewandowski. The hosts were also a man up but somehow imploded in the second half, losing a man, giving away a goal and thanks to a penalty save took a point.
Against Russia, this time they fell behind despite playing the better of the two sides. Then captain Blaszcsykowski hammered a left foot stunner into the top corner to equalise and take home a point. In both games I'd say Poland have been the better side in 3 of the 4 halves and go into this one in good form despite not winning a game.
Betting Verdict
I believe the momentum is more with Poland than the Czechs. Bilek's side were 2-0 up and cruising only for Cech to make an error in his second straight game and given he's the captain I can't help but feel his teammates may get the jitters around him too.
Poland learned a lesson from the first game and paced themselves better in the second making them very tough over 90 minutes and not just 45.
Whilst I fancy the Poles to win this, I think we will get goals with both sides scoring and conceding in both their opening 2 games. I expect the trend to continue but the Poles getting at least a second. Games at the end of the group are notorious for goals and this is no different so I will take a chance on the 2.75 line.
Good Luck
The Pick :
Czech Republic 1-3 Poland
